남아있는 빅 4의 예상행선지와 금액

Manny Ramirez

Scott Boras claimed at the start of the offseason that he would get Manny a four-year, $100 million deal.  The last offer Boras received from the Dodgers met the annual salary demand -- except it was for only one year. 

Earlier this winter, Manny took little time turning down a two-year, $45 million offer from GM Ned Colletti, and according to ESPN's Jayson Stark, the 36 year-old needed but a few hours to turn down their latest proposal.  Dodgers owner Frank McCourt predictably responded today by indicating that he'd like to bring Ramirez back to Chavez Ravine, but that the team is prepared to move on and perhaps sign Bobby Abreu, Adam Dunn, and/or Orlando Hudson instead.

But the real question is, what's Manny looking for?  It's looking less and less likely that a team is going to cave and give him a multi-year deal, so taking the best one-year offer presented to him may be his best strategy.  Will he get a better one than the $25 million tender from the Dodgers?  That's hard to say, but ultimately -- McCourt's comments notwithstanding -- I think the Dodgers' offer will be there or quite some time, before Colletti moves on to lesser options.

However, if neither the Giants nor the Dodgers are willing to go past one year for Manny, my guess is that some team will outbid both of them in a one-year deal.  It may be the Yankees, it may be the Mets, and -- less likely -- it could even be the Nationals, but I think that some team will either approach or break the $30 million threshold and land Manny for 2009. 

Prediction: Dodgers; one-year, $30 million

Bobby Abreu
Manny might be stealing the spotlight among the remaining free agents, but lest you forget, Bobby Abreu also had a remarkable second-half of the 2008 season, batting .327/.408/.522 with 10 homers for the Yankees.  Yet, even though the 34 year-old's demands aren't nearly as exorbitant as Manny's, he's still struggling to find even a satisfactory one-year deal.

Abreu was recently reported to be in talks with the White Sox regarding a one-year, $8 million deal, but ESPN's Jerry Crasnick now says that no offer was actually presented, and that the talks have reached an impasse.  He was previously linked to both Los Angeles area teams, as well as both San Francisco Bay Area teams, with the Mets, Nationals, and Mariners also in the mix. 

Though I seriously doubt that Abreu will be able to land much more than a one-year deal at this point, I do think that if he waits until Ramirez occupies one of the remaining openings, he'll earn at least $10 million for the 2009 season.  The NL West rival that loses out on Manny seems to make sense.

Prediction: Giants; one-year, $10 million

Ben Sheets
There is little doubt that, when healthy, Sheets is the best pitcher on the market; heck, you could argue that a healthy Sheets is better than A.J. Burnett, and possibly even CC Sabathia.  Yet, the 30 year-old northpaw ain't going to come close to matching Burnett's five-year, $82.5 million, and might even struggle to get more than $10 million on a one-year deal. 

Sheets was most recently linked to the Rangers, who courted him quite seriously by bringing him in for a meeting with the top brass, including GM Jon Daniels and Nolan Ryan.  But even though recent medical reports on Sheets were supposedly optimistic, Texas remains concerned, and that -- per MLB.com's T.R. Sullivan -- is complicating negotiations.

If the Rangers aren't willing to take a gamble on Sheets, the Mets may jump back into the race for him.  He'd also be a potentially nice low-risk, high-reward signing for the Oakland A's, who could use another strong veteran rotation arm to solidify themselves as a contender this year.  And, though MLB.com's Adam McCalvy says they've made little progress recently, if his pricetag stays low, the Brewers could bring Sheets back as well. 

Prediction: Brewers; one-year, $8 million plus incentives

Adam Dunn
Dunn's stock seems to have floundered this offseason even though he was the best bet of all the hitters available to hit 40 homers in 2009, perhaps in part due to lingering doubts about his style of play that were raised by J.P. Ricciardi's comments months ago.  The 29 year-old is a butcher in the outfield (he's unwilling to move to first-base), probably won't hit over .250, and could lead the league in strikeouts, but someone, somewhere, should find room for his terrific power and .900 career OPS. 

Who will that someone be?  It could be the Dodgers, even though Dunn is likely their third choice behind Manny Ramirez and Bobby Abreu.  It could also be the Nationals, who won't give Dunn the multi-year deal he wants, but would figure to find him more affordable than the other free agent outfielders.  Not long ago, Chico Harlan of the Washington Post heard from an agent that Dunn would be lucky to get more than a one-year, $5 million deal on the current market.  If that's the case, you could probably throw the Giants, Mets, Angels, and some other teams into the running as well. 

Prediction: Nationals; one-year, $6 million plus incentives

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