선발! 원해요?

Now that the infield situation has been sorted out (three free-agent signings! How's that for inactivity?) and Mannygate is probably going to stretch out for a few more weeks, it's time to turn our attention to the biggest remaining question for the Dodgers:
다저스의 인필드라인은 완성되었어(3명의 FA 사인, 이게 잠잠한건가??) 그리고 매니 딜은 몆주 정도 더 시간이 필요하니 우리의 관심을 가장 큰 물음표(역자 주:선발)가 있는 곳으로 옮길 때가 됐어

Oh, wait - that's the biggest question over at The Hardball Times, and well worth a read. No, the real question facing the Dodgers in 2009 is what to do to fill out the starting rotation following the departures of Brad Penny, Derek Lowe, and Greg Maddux. Before getting into what we need, let's figure out what we have. Believe it or not, the Dodger starters over the last three seasons have been remarkably consistent in terms of innings thrown - 922.2, 917, and finally 927.2 in 2008. Let's make it easy and say that we'll need to fill 920 starting innings in 2009.
현재 다저스는 08시즌의 로테이션에 있었던 로우, 페니, 마스터 등이 팀에서 빠져나가고, 선발이 없는 상황이다.
지난 3년동안 다저스의 선발진은 922.2이닝, 917이닝, 927.2이닝을 소화했다.
쉽게 말해서 우리는 09시즌에 도합 920이닝을 소화할 투수를 갖추어야 해.

Returning from 2008's rotation, we have the big three of Chad Billingsley, Hiroki Kuroda, and Clayton Kershaw, who combined for 491.2 innings. It's clear that all three have question marks, between Billingsley's broken leg, Kuroda's shoulder questions, and Kershaw's extreme youth. However, all indications are that Billingsley will be fine for spring training (the cast is already off), Kuroda's shoulder issues are nothing new (didn't stop him from pitching great down the stretch last year) and Kershaw's innings were decently monitored. I won't ignore the fact that any of the three of them could have issues in 2009, but since it's not like any of them are coming off major Tommy John surgery, we'll take the optimistic view for the time and pencil them in. I'll give Billingsley and Kuroda the same 200 and 180 or so IP they put up in 2008. Kershaw pitched only 107.2 MLB innings, but if you include his minor league innings, that gets him to 169. Considering that at another year older, he'll likely get stretched out a little more, but that MLB innings are undoubtedly more strenuous than the minor league variety, I'll give him 170 MLB innings.
일단 08시즌에 활약하고, 09시즌에 다저블루에 남아 팀을 위해 던져줄 빌링이와 구로다, 커쇼는 08시즌에 491.2이닝을 투구했으며, 여전히 이들 세명에게는 문제(골치꺼리)가 남아있는 상황입니다.
빌링이는 브로큰 레그, 구로다는 어깨문제, 커쇼는 어리고 & 미숙한 점.
하지만, 각각 이들의 문제는 크게 대두되지 않을 전망입니다.
빌링이의 다리는 스캠전에 완치될것이며, 구로다의 어깨문제는 어제오늘의 문제가 아니며, 커쇼의 이닝은 체크되고 있는 상황이다. 나는 빌링이가 200이닝,구로다가 180이닝을 던지리라 예상하고 있고,08시즌에 메이저 마이너 토탈 169이닝을 던진 커쇼의 경우 한살 더 많아졌지만 메이저 피칭이닝수는 107.2이닝에 불과했기에 난 그에게 170이닝을 요구하겠어 역자 주: 아마 모니터라는 단어 탓에 햇갈리신듯 한데,올해에 이닝수제한을 받았었다는 얘길 했네요.


920 innings needed
Chad Billingsley 200
Hiroki Kuroda 180
Clayton Kershaw 170

550 taken up, 370 to go. Now, we've got no shortage of guys to soak up the 5th starter spot (James McDonald, Eric Stults, the Corpse of Jason Schmidt, etc.) but it's clear that at least one more legitimate starter is going to have to be imported to help replace the guaranteed 200 IP that Derek Lowe was good for every year. You simply cannot trade for any decent pitching right now, so let's take a quick spin around free agency. I don't know which one of these guys end up in Dodger blue, but I'd say it's almost certain one of them does - preferably on a one-year deal, but for most of these guys that's unlikely.

(No, there's no Jake Peavy involved. This is for free agents, and I don't see a Peavy deal as very likely, not when Kevin Towers has already said he'll jack up the price for a division rival. No Andy Pettitte either, because the him-to-LA rumors are basically dead, and I already discussed that travesty here.)
이들 세명이 소화해줄 이닝은 대략 550이닝. 그럼 나머지 370이닝은 5선발(맥도날드, 스털츠, 멍청한 슈밋 등등)과 또 한명의 추가적인 선발을 영입해야 할 것입니다. 08시즌 로우의 200이닝에 버금가는 누군가를 말이죠.
아마 그 추가적인 선발투수 영입은 1년딜이 좋겠지만, 그들은 그걸 싫어할 겁니다.

(잠깐! 저[필자]는 피비는 말하지 않았습니다. 지금껏, 그리고 밑에도 얘기하겠지만, 전 FA만을 생각하며, 파즈의 단장인 KT는 디비전팀에게 그들의 핵심선수를 넘긴다면 추가적인 +@를 원한다고 이미 밝혔기때문이죠. 또한, 페팃의 루머는 표면적으로 죽었습니다.)

Randy Johnson (45)
(184 IP, 117 ERA+)
Pro: Despite being older than dirt and uglier than Dikembe Mutumbo, the moderately-sized Unit is still an effective pitcher. He's made 30+ starts in 4 of the last 5 seasons, and has exactly one sub-100 ERA+ since 1990, which is just unbelievable. Besides, that one season came when he was with the Yankees, and not only is the NL West hardly the AL East, it serves as a great example for how faulty ERA can be, as the 1.239 WHIP he put up that year was identical to his 2008 season, yet in '08 that WHIP got him an ERA over a run lower.
디켐버 무톰보(Dikembe Mutumbo)보다 못생기고 추악하고 나이도 더 많지만(무톰보는 66년생, 유닛은 63년생), 빅 유닛은 최근 5년동안 4번을 30번 이상의 선발을 등판했다.
주 : 무톰보는 NBA 4대센터인 하킴 올라주원, 데이빗 로빈슨, 패트링 유잉, 세킬 오닐에는 속하지 못하지만, 수비과 블록슛에서도 독보적인 존재였습니다. 작년까지 휴스턴에서 야호밍의 백업 센터로 뛰었는데 올해는 은퇴한걸로 알고있습니다.

Con: Never thought you'd say goodbye to Greg Maddux and come up with someone older, did you? Despite his relatively durable track record, it's hard to depend on someone who's going to be 45. Plus, if small children stare at him, they might turn to stone. 
마스터와 바이바이해놓고, 내구성은 있지만 45살의 이 투수와 함께 하고 싶어?

Wants: Johnson's had interest from a half-dozen teams, but seems to prefer staying on the West Coast and playing for a contender. He's unlikely to return to Arizona after offering to take a pay cut to $8m, while the D-Backs offered only about $3m. The Giants seem to be the team hottest after him, though at his age he's unlikely to command more than one guaranteed year.
최소 6개 팀이 존슨에게 관심있지만, 유닛은 여전히 서부해안팀에서 뛰기를 선호하고 있다. SF가 가장 그를 영입하고 싶어한다.

So... In a rotation full of question marks, adding an old guy might not seem like the best answer when you're looking for dependability. That said, some of the other guys on this list who are 15 years younger have much more disconcerting injury or wildness issues. If he really wants to play for a contender, going to San Francisco isn't the place to go, so if he's willing to take one year at $8m, perhaps with a team or vesting option for the second, I think that'd be a great deal for the Dodgers. Besides, he's 7-0 with a 2.04 ERA in 79.1 career innings in Dodger Stadium. Yes, please.
로테이션의 깊이를 추구할때 존슨의 선택은 그닥 좋은 선택이 아닐지도 몰라. 이말인즉슨, 인저리 프론의 가능성이 다른 선수에 비해 높다는 거지. 아마 그가 컨텍터팀에서 뛰길 원한다면 SF가 아닌 다저블루로 올거야, 그리고 그는 다저스타디움에서 79.1이닝동안 7-0에 2.04ERA를 기록했어.

Randy Wolf (32)
(190.1 IP, 93 ERA+)
Pro: Well, he's a local boy, and didn't you just love the never ending suckfest of newspaper articles in 2007 about "local boy coming home to make good"? Yeah, me neither.
그래. 그는 CA출신이다.
(suckfest이게 무슨 단어인지 찾아도 없네요. 알려주삼!!)

Con: Wolf is what he is, and that's an average pitcher who's pretty injury prone. Putting up an 81 ERA+ in San Diego, of all places, last year doesn't exactly inspire confidence - though it should be mentioned he was somehow very good after going to Houston. He's basically the definition of "average" - after 10 years in the bigs he's got a 101 ERA+, and while there's some value in league-average innings, a history of arm injuries doesn't help.
울프는 인저리프론에다가 지난 10년동안 평범한 성적을 찍어냈고, 작년에는 타이트한 상황에서 던지질 않았어.

Wants: Well, he's basically mediocre, he gets hurt a lot, and he was lousy in San Diego last year. He can't expect that much, right?
그는 원래 2류였어. 그리고 08시즌 파즈에서도 그저 그랬고. 그에게 더 많은 것을 바랄 수 없어.

So... What's crazier about that quote, that he wants 3/30 or that the Astros may have actually offered 3/24? There's no way I'd give Wolf and his mediocre, injury-fueled track record more than one guaranteed year. Someone else will. Pass. Besides, Randy Johnson is a better pitcher and wants less money. Which one would you prefer?
그는 3년에 30M을 원했고, 휴스턴은 그에게 3년에 24M을 제시했다가 퇴짜를 맞았어.
돈은 더 달라고 하지만, 실상 그는 허접하고, 존슨보다 나이는 어리지만, 더 허접한 피칭을 했어, 자! 생각해봐. 넌 누굴 선택하겠니? 치워!! Pass~~

Jon Garland (29)
(196.2 IP, 91 ERA+)
Pro: The man is the model of durability, averaging 207 innings/season over his career and making 30+ starts for 7 seasons in a row. He's what you call "an innings eater", as he's usually been about league average, rarely awful, and occasionally excellent.
그는 내구성있는 선발투수의 기준이며, 7년 연속으로 30게임 이상을 던졌으며, 평균 207이닝을 소화했어.

Con: Don't let the 14-8 record in 2008 fool you, because he just wasn't all that good. A 91 ERA+ and 1.50 WHIP are hardly the numbers you want to take into the free agent market. Even more worrisome are his strikeout numbers. Clearly, a guy whose career high is 115 was never a big fireballer to begin with, but he's been on a steady 4-year decline in that department, all the way down to just 90 in nearly 200 innings.
2008년 그의 14승 8패에 속지마, 그의 모든 수치가 다 그 성적에 걸맞지는 않았으니까, 91 ERA+와 1.50휩은 FA에서 그를 픽하기 어렵게 만드는 요인이다. 더 심한 우려요소는 그의 삼진갯수다. 결론적으로 그의 커리어하이 삼진갯수 115개는 그가 파이어볼러가 절대 아님을 보여주고 있다 그러나 그는 지난 4년간 꾸준했다 200이닝 가까운 투구동안 90개대의 삼진을 잡든 말든

Wants: There hasn't been a whole lot of news about Garland, as he's mainly been mentioned as a guy that teams will look at once they miss out on Derek Lowe and the other top starters. That said, the fact that his agent is going around telling people that Garland has more wins over the last 4 years than Lowe, Sheets, and Burnett aren't a great sign for a reasonable value.
그에 관한 루머는 거의 없고, 그는 탑 선발투수와 로우를 놓친 팀이 선택할 차선책쯤으로 언급되는 선수이다. 지난 4년동안 로우, 쉬츠, 버넷보다 더 많은 승리를 가져다 주었는데도 말이지.

So... I don't mind the idea of having a guy who you know will throw 200 roughly average innings, especially one who's never been on the DL. There's value in that at the right price. But you just know that some team like the Mets is going to get desperate about their rotation and offer Garland a three or four year deal. I'd rather it not be the Dodgers. Next.
확실히 그는 200이닝 정도는 던져 줄거야. 게다가 그는 DL에도 올라가본 적이 없는 튼튼한 몸이라고, 하지만, 이건 확실해. 메츠는 지금 선발투수만 보면 침을 질질 흘릴꺼야. 그들은 갈랜다에게도 3년이나 4년 오퍼를 할 수도 있다고.

Oliver Perez (27)
(194 IP, 100 ERA+)
Pro: May have the most pure talent of any remaining starter, and at just 27 in 2009 is only now entering his prime. He made his MLB debut at age 20 and was arguably more successful than Clayton Kershaw at the same age, plus his 2004 season of a 145 ERA+ with 239 strikeouts at age 22 was pure domination.
아마 남아있는 선발투수중에 가장 재능이 많은 투수일거야.(지금 다저스가 찾고 있는 투수는 재능있는 선수가 아니라 이닝이터 & 프론트급의 선발인데...) 그리고 그는 20살에 메이저에 데뷔했고 같은 나이대의 커쇼보다 더 성공을 했어.

Con: Geez, where do you start? After that 2004 season, his career fell off a cliff, with ERA of 5.85 and 6.55 the next two seasons. He's turned it around somewhat with the Mets the last two years, posting ERA+ of 120 and 100 with good strikeout numbers, but his wildness is still a problem (105 walks last year), and more than anyone I've ever seen, is prone to the "absolute Chernobyl disaster" start. He gave up 5 runs or more 8 times in 2008, including such gems as "6 runs in 0.1 innings vs. the Giants" and "7 runs in 1.2 innings vs. the Pirates." Oh, and Scott Boras is his agent, so there's that. 
04시즌 이후 그는 계속 삽질 중이야. 그 문제의 시초는 어마어마한 볼넷(08시즌에 105볼넷)이며, 그와 계약한다면 체르노빌 대참사가 될 수 있어.
주 : 체르노빌은 과거 소련연방공화국일때 핵발전소에서의 참사를 말하며, 현재까지 그 후폭풍이 진행되고 있으며, 많은 사람들이 아직도 고통을 받고 있다고 하죠.

Wants: It's hard to ever take Boras seriously, so I can't get too worked up over the reports that he's still looking for 5 years and $70 million. That said, the infamous binder comparing Perez to Sandy Koufax was pretty hilarious. Either way, there's not likely to be much movement on this until Teixeria and Lowe are off the board.
그가 원하는 5년 70M은 보라스도 안겨주기 어려운 금액일거야, 마치 올페와 샌디 쿠펙스를 비교하는게 얼마나 우스꽝스러운지와 비견되지, 같은 맥락에서, 티렉과 로우가 시장에서 사라지기 전까지 그의 계약에 많은 진척은 없을거야
주: 당연하지 않니 올페야?? 정신차려 


So... I actually like Perez more than most. I think that in the right situation - big ballpark, low-pressure media, doesn't have to be "the man" he could really turn things around, and his youth is a huge plus. But the combination of Scott Boras and Perez' propensity for imploding makes this an enormous risk, and I'll happily laugh when some other team gives him 4 years and $48 million, AKA "the Carlos Silva special".
그는 넓은 외야를 가지고 있는 곳과 미디어의 압박이 없는 곳에서는 좋은 선택이라고 생각해.
게다가 그는 아직 젊고 그는 플러스 요인이 될 수 있어. 하지만, 그는 엄청난 위험을 내포하고 있고, 그에게 4년간 48M을 주는 팀이 있다면 난 이렇게 말하고 싶어.
카를로스 실바의 특별판.

Ben Sheets (30)
(198.1 IP, 139 ERA+)
Pro: Pure performance and talent. You might think a career 116 ERA+ is pretty good, but even that's underselling him because it includes his first three years in the league when he was relatively mediocre. Since 2004, his ERA+ scores have been 162, 128, 119, 117, and 139 - with WHIP to match, and a fantastic K/BB ratio. Clearly, when healthy, he's one of the best in baseball.
그는 상대적으로 저평가 받아온 선수임에도 불구하고 그는 꽤나 좋은 성적을 찍어냈고, 좋은 K/BB비율을 찍어냈어. 그리고 그가 건강할때 그의 페스트볼은 best of best중에 하나야.

Con: Ah, yes. "When healthy". Sheets is one of the most injury prone pitchers in baseball, which makes him a perfect fit for the Dodgers. Not only that, the injuries have been all over the map - an ear infection, a herniated disc, shoulder tendonitis, a torn finger tendon. While that's better than a guy who keeps blowing out his arm, it doesn't exactly give a guy the "tough" label either. (For more detail on his injuries and a phenomenal explanation of his windup and pitching tendenacies, please check out this article at The Hardball Times from May 2008).
mlb에서 대표적인 인저리프론중에 하나인 쉬츠는 건강하다면 다저스에게는 꽤 괜찮은 적임자가 될 수 있지만, 그의 몸 구석구석에는 인저리프론의 세포가 자리 잡고 있어.
 
Wants: It's hard to say. If not for his injury history, he'd have been up there in the rarified air between AJ Burnett and CC Sabathia, because he's just that good. In fact, there's been very little discussion on Sheets whatsoever, other than a report that the Yankees won't get involved because they already have Burnett to keep their trainers busy. There's been whispers about the Rangers or a return to Milwaukee, but it's hard to see any team giving him a long-term deal.
부상만 아니라면 그는 정말 좋은 선수일거야. 텍사스와 밀워키로의 리턴에 대한 루머가 조금 있었지만, 그에게 장기계약을 때리는 구단은 없을거야.

So... For a team still paying Jason Schmidt to watch "The Golden Girls", adding a pitcher with injury worries might not be a good idea. That said, it's not as bad as it may seem. There's no "missed two seasons due to Tommy John" on his resume; in fact, he's pitched at least 106 innings in every season of his career, and just keeps getting sidetracked by these various ailments. Despite ending the year injured, he did still make 31 starts in 2008, yet the missed time at the end of the year is what's fresh on people's minds. Could this work in our favor, to perhaps get such a talented guy on the cheap? I hesitate to even throw out a number, since I have no idea what his market will be and there's not even been any rumors of contracts. Would he take a two-year deal with a vesting option for a third? Or perhaps a one-year deal to prove his health and then go back out next year in what might be a better economy? If the money were reasonable, I'd do it, simply because I think his health issues might be a tad overblown, and they're not all arm injuries anyway. Personally, I think the Dodgers will stay far away because of the Schmidt debacle, but I don't neccessarily agree.
"The Golden Girls"를 시청하고 있는 슈밋에게 엄청난 돈을 지불하고 있는 다저스는 또다른 인저리 프론을 추가하는건 좋은 선택이 아닐거야.
쉬츠의 커리어를 보면 적어도 106이닝을 던졌지만, 다양한 질병들이 도사리고 있어. 08시즌에 부상으로 시즌아웃이 되었지만, 그는 31번의 선발등판을 했어.
그는 2+1계약을 할 수도 있고, 1년계약을 맺고 FA재수를 선택할 수도 있어. 내년에 경재상황이 더 좋아질 수도 있으니...
가격이 적당하다면 그를 선택하는것도 좋을 수 있어. 난 그의 건강이 조금 부풀여진 경향이 있다고 생각해.
하지만, 슈밋을 생각한다면 다저스는 그와 계약안할 거야.
주 : "The Golden Girls"는 미국시트콤이라고 하네요. 자세한 내용은 몰라서...

약간 문맥상 정리를 해드렸음다. 양해해주세요^^