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Prospectus Today

 

Manny Being Jody

by Joe Sheehan

 BP의 오늘자 Joe Sheehan 씨가 쓴 글입니다.전문 해석은 귀찮으니 간추려서 살펴 보기로 하죠.지극히 세이버 매트릭션 적인 관점이라 현실성이 떨어질수도 있으나 일리가 있는 부분도 있습니다.

Raul Ibanez for three years and a total of $30 million. Pat Burrell for two years and a total of $16 million. Milton Bradleyfor three years and a total of $30 million.

Manny Ramirez for three years and $63 million? (라울 이바네즈는 3년 3000만불 팻 버렐은 2년 1600만불 밀튼 브래들리는 3년 3000만불의 계약을 맺었다.매니 라미레즈를 위해 3년 6300만불을 줄 수 있을까?)

The cluster of corner outfielders in this year's free-agent market has likely cost each of the individual players millions of dollars. The incredible bargain picked up by the Rays—who get a five-win DH for a pittance—highlights the concept, and we'll likely see Adam Dunn and Bobby Abreu sign similarly impressive deals for their new employers before the month is out. With that in mind, and while noting that only one player mentioned so far in this article is going to Cooperstown, is it now possible to say that Ramirez and Scott Boras overplayed their hand? Ramirez is the best of this pool of outfielders; he's also the oldest, the one carrying the most non-performance baggage, and the one with the stated demands furthest from what seems to be the market. (올 FA 시장에는 많은 코너 외야수들이 있으며 믿기지 않는 값싸게 템파베이는 5승의 가치가 있는 지명타자를 잡아냈다.우린 아담 던과 어브레유가 새로운 팀에 어떠한 계약을 맺을지 지켜볼 것이나 쿠퍼스타운 행이 예정된 한명의 플레이어는 언급되지 않고 있다.그는 이번 시장에서 최고의 자원 매니 라미레즈이다.가장 많은 나이와 가장 시장과 불이행하고 있는 선수로 시장에서는 보라스의 요구사항과 팀들과는 거리가 멀어져 있다.)

           Age   PA   AVG   OBP   SLG   EqA   WARP   +/-     UZR 
Abreu       35  684  .296  .371  .471  .291    5.2   -24   -25.9
Burrell     32  645  .250  .367  .507  .295    5.2   -20   -10.8
Bradley     31  509  .321  .436  .563  .339    7.0   + 3     1.2
Dunn        29  651  .236  .386  .513  .300    6.3   -23*  -20.0
Ibanez      37  707  .293  .358  .479  .295    7.4   -18   -12.6

Ramirez     37  654  .302  .430  .601  .344    9.8   -13    -4.8

*outfield only

(Thanks to Rick Lopez and Ben Lindbergh for their assistance in researching the data. +/- is courtesy of Bill James Online. UZR, courtesy of Fangraphs.)

I love Manny Ramirez as a player, and I'm on record making the argument that the off-field problems that predicated his trade from Boston may have been overstated. (At this point, six months and a lot of conversations later, I don't know if I still hold that position. It's not relevant here, regardless.) It's not clear, however, that he's worth twice as much or more per season than the other guys in this pool. More that the others? Sure, he's the best player out of this bunch, even granting the poor defense and the advanced age. He's also the most likely, save perhaps Dunn, to sustain his performance over the next three years. With all that, though, there's just no way he's worth twice as much per season as Bradley is. He's not worth three times what Burrell will make. You're not paying for his Hall of Fame past, remember; you're paying for his future. (난 선수로 매니 라미레즈를 사랑하고 그의 필드 밖 문제로 인해 보스턴에서 트레이드 된것이 과대선전됐다라고 이야기를 했었다.그런 그가 시장의 다른 선수보다 2배 이상의 몸값을 받을 가치가 있을까? 그는 시장에서 최고의 자원이나 떨어지는 수비력과 많은 나이라는 단점을 가지고 있다.과연 그가 던과 다음 3년동안 비교해서 어떤 성적을 올릴지 브래들리의 2배,버렐의 3배의 성적을 올릴지 명예의 전당 선수라서 그 가격이 지불됨을 뜻하는 것은 아니다.)

Right now, the best contract for Ramirez is the one that he no longer has available to him: his one-year, $20 million option that was voided when he accepted a trade to the Dodgers. At the time, it seemed silly to suggest that Ramirez wouldn't do better than that. Now, looking at the contracts signed by his peers, it seems silly to suggest that he will. The signings of Burrell and Bradley have to affect how the Dodgers, the Giants, and other potential suitors regard the price on Ramirez's head. Of course, the buyers aren't entirely rational, and Ramirez has some markers that these other guys don't. He's fresh off of the two great months for the Dodgers and the perception that he carried them to the postseason. Still, the gap between where the market sits for corner outfielders who can hit but not field—$8 million to $10 million per season for a three-year deal—and the current set of rumors on Ramirez is too wide to be ignored. 
ABreu & Dunnstill available; there's no reason for a team to spend twice as much as it has to to get maybe an extra win or two. Even pricing Ramirez just off of last year's performance, which may overstate the gap between him and the rest of the field for 2009 and beyond, a reasonable estimate would be approximately $16 million per season on a three-year contract, plus an option on a fourth year. ...... the chance for Ramirez to break the bank is gone. There's not going to be a nine-figure contract, and Ramirez's AAV (average annual value) will almost certainly drop from his last deal. He took a risk in pressing to ensure that he would be a free agent this winter, and despite his fantastic performance, that risk looks like it will be for naught because of the glut of players with similar skill sets available. It won't quite rise to the level of Jody Reed or Juan Gonzalez, but right now, it seems that Ramirez left money on the table by not taking the first offer — two years and $45 million — made back in November. (지금 당장 매니 라미레즈와 맺는 최고의 계약은 그가 포기했던 2000만불의 옵션 그 이상이 아니다.버렐과 브래들리의 계약은 다저스와 자이언츠 그리고 라미레즈를 원하는 잠재적인 팀들에게 영향을 줄 것이다.물론 영입자는 완전히 합리적인 가격을 제시할 수는 없는 일이고 지금 맺어진 3년 연간 800~1000만불급의 계약이 맺어지고 있다.어브레유와 아담 던이 시장에 남아 있고 매니 라미레즈는 그들보다 2배 이상의 팀 승리를 보장해주지 않음에도 몸값은 2배 이상을 원하고 있다.합리적인 계약액은 3년 연간 1600만불 4800만불과 4년째 옵션이다.지금당장 라미레즈는 첫 오퍼로 11월에 받았던 2년 4500만불보다 더 많은 오퍼를 테이블에서 듣고 있지 못하는 것처럼 보인다.)