빌 제임스의 2010 예상수치(투자)

Yesterday we took a look at the offensive projections for the 2010 Dodgers, thanks to the Bill James Handbook (available November 1).  Today we look at the pitching staff.

I calculated FIP for the projections based on the formula at The Hardball Times.  In these projections, keep in mind that playing time and pitching role is merely estimated.
밑에 깜빡하고 말하지 않았는데, 이 자료는 현지시간으로 11월 1일에 발매되는 것이지만 웹으로 미리 본 유료회원이 올려줬나 봅니다.
FIP(Fielding Independent Pitching)는 이제 세이버메트릭션들만이 보는 자료가 아닌, ERA의 맹점을 표현한 자료이니 병행해서 보시는 것이 좋을거 같습니다.

Starters
Clayton Kershaw
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 projected	---	---	---	---	---
2009 actual	171.0	2.79	3.06	4.79	9.74
2010 projected	180	3.25	3.47	4.55	9.40
2010 status	under club control
Chad Billingsley
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 projected	193	3.68	3.72	3.92	8.81
2009 actual	196.1	4.03	3.77	3.94	8.21
2010 projected	185	3.65	3.77	3.94	8.61
2010 status	arbitration eliglble
Randy Wolf
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 projected	195	4.25	4.30	3.32	7.62
2009 actual	214.1	3.23	3.99	2.44	6.72
2010 projected	200	3.87	4.26	3.02	7.16
2010 status	Type A free agent
Hiroki Kuroda
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 projected	192	3.89	4.38	2.53	5.86
2009 actual	117.1	3.76	3.61	1.84	6.67
2010 projected	128	3.80	4.29	2.46	5.98
2010 status	under contract
Vicente Padilla
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 projected	151	4.71	4.71	3.28	6.26
2009 actual	147.1	4.46	4.51	3.30	5.93
2010 projected	141	4.66	4.73	3.26	6.19
2010 status	Type B free agent
Padilla's stats with Texas included
Jon Garland
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 projected	186	4.69	5.02	2.90	4.40
2009 actual	204	4.01	4.43	2.69	4.81
2010 projected	216	4.33	4.62	2.67	4.54
2010 status	mutual contract option
Garland's stats with Arizona included
Bullpen
Jonathan Broxton
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 projected	70	3.09	2.63	3.47	11.19
2009 actual	76.0	2.61	1.98	3.43	13.50
2010 projected	80	2.36	2.44	3.49	11.70
2010 status	arbitration eliglble
George Sherrill
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 projected	53	3.40	3.43	4.58	10.19
2009 actual	69.0	1.70	3.09	3.13	7.96
2010 projected	74	2.92	3.37	4.01	9.36
2010 status	arbitration eliglble
Sherrill's stats with Baltimore included
Hong-Chih Kuo
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 projected	69	3.39	2.90	3.52	10.96
2009 actual	30.0	3.00	3.18	3.90	9.60
2010 projected	48	3.00	3.00	3.75	10.50
2010 status	arbitration eliglble
Ronald Belisario
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 projected	---	---	---	---	---
2009 actual	70.2	2.04	3.26	3.69	8.15
2010 projected	69	4.04	4.25	4.17	7.17
2010 status	under club control
Ramon Troncoso
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 projected	---	---	---	---	---
2009 actual	82.2	2.72	3.31	3.70	5.99
2010 projected	72	3.88	3.59	3.75	6.63
2010 status	under club control
James McDonald
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 projected	---	---	---	---	---
2009 actual	63.0	4.00	4.29	4.86	7.71
2010 projected	74	3.77	4.27	4.01	9.12
2010 status	under club control
Guillermo Mota
Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9
2009 projected	56	3.86	4.26	3.38	7.55
2009 actual	65.1	3.44	4.11	3.31	5.37
2010 projected	55	3.60	4.22	3.44	7.20
2010 status	Type B free agent

In addition, there were some 2010 projections for other Dodgers.

Other Projections
Pitcher	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9	2010 Contract Status
Eric Stults	32	5.06	4.62	3.38	7.03	under club control (out of options)
Jeff Weaver	77	5.03	4.77	2.57	5.96	free agent
Charlie Haeger	38	4.97	5.26	4.50	6.39	under club control

에릭 스털츠(Eric Stults)의 옵션이 이제는 없나봅니다. 올해 경험과 구로다의 부상으로 빠진 2달동안 좋은 모습을 보여줬는데, 내년에 어떻게 될지 아리송하네요. 위버의 경우는 올시즌 자신만의 활약으로 타팀에서 입질할 가능성도 있어보입니다. 현지에서는 재계약하라고 하던데....물론 스프릿계약쯤으로 하란 소리겠죠.

커쇼의 (9이닝당) 볼넷 허용율을 0.5개만 줄여도 올해보다 더 솔리드하지 않을까 싶네요. 사실 커쇼가 원정(홈 : 1.83ERA ; 원정 : 3.81ERA)에서 약하다는 편견(?)은 시즌초 휴스턴과 록스 원정에서 대량실점(두 경기 합쳐서 9이닝동안 15차잭)을 했기때문이 아닐까 싶고, 그 경기를 제외하곤 원정 성적(올시즌 원정 82.2이닝동안 35자책)이 나쁜 편(두 경기를 제외하고 73.2이닝동안 20자책, 2.44ERA)도 아니죠.