빌 제임스의 2010 예상수치(타자)

One of the ways to ease the pain of a baseball-less offseason is the annual Bill James Handbook.  The 2010 version will be released on November 1, 2010, but the fine folks at ACTA Sports provided us with an early look at the player projections.  Here's a look at the 2010 projections for the Dodgers, with a look back at how their 2009 projections fared.

I threw in prOPS from The Hardball Times, short for "predicted OPS," which is "a formula for predicting what a player's OPS is likely to be in the future based on his batted balls, strikeouts, home runs and walks," to see if there was any luck based on batted balls.
빌 제임스 핸드북은 매년 다음 해에 선수가 어떤 스텟을 기록할지에 대해 그 이전의 성적을 토대로 그 수치를 예측하는데, 확률에 대해서 의문을 제기하는 사람도 있고, 얼추 맞다고 하는 사람도 있으니 그냥 '그렇다'정도로 봐두시면 될거 같습니다.

Infield
Russell Martin
Year	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2009 projected	.292	.390	.439	.829
2009 actual	.250	.352	.329	.680
2009 prOPS	.284	.382	.396	.778
2010 projected	.272	.372	.396	.768
2010 status	arbitration eliglble
James Loney
Year	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2009 projected	.295	.351	.443	.794
2009 actual	.281	.357	.399	.756
2009 prOPS	.298	.371	.438	.809
2010 projected	.294	.360	.440	.800
2010 status	arbitration eliglble
Orlando Hudson
Year	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2009 projected	.270	.342	.392	.734
2009 actual	.283	.357	.417	.774
2009 prOPS	.277	.352	.391	.742
2010 projected	.280	.353	.409	.762
2010 status	Type A free agent
Ronnie Belliard
Year	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2009 projected	.266	.331	.405	.736
2009 actual	.277	.325	.451	.776
2009 prOPS	.281	.328	.466	.794
2010 projected	.265	.322	.416	.738
2010 status	Type B free agent
Belliard's stats include time w/Nats
Rafael Furcal
Year	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2009 projected	.286	.354	.409	.763
2009 actual	.269	.335	.375	.711
2009 prOPS	.278	.343	.388	.730
2010 projected	.278	.346	.391	.737
2010 status	under contract
Casey Blake
Year	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2009 projected	.259	.334	.429	.763
2009 actual	.280	.363	.468	.832
2009 prOPS	.287	.372	.473	.845
2010 projected	.257	.337	.426	.762
2010 status	under contract
Outfield
Manny Ramirez
Year	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2009 projected	.304	.406	.556	.962
2009 actual	.290	.418	.531	.949
2009 prOPS	.314	.439	.557	.995
2010 projected	.296	.406	.537	.943
2010 status	holds player option
Matt Kemp
Year	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2009 projected	.311	.360	.496	.856
2009 actual	.297	.352	.490	.842
2009 prOPS	.279	.335	.478	.813
2010 projected	.311	.365	.508	.873
2010 status	arbitration eliglble
Andre Ethier
Year	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2009 projected	.303	.374	.492	.866
2009 actual	.272	.361	.508	.869
2009 prOPS	.292	.378	.520	.898
2010 projected	.288	.368	.500	.868
2010 status	arbitration eliglble
Juan Pierre
Year	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2009 projected	.292	.348	.356	.704
2009 actual	.308	.365	.392	.792
2009 prOPS	.306	.362	.376	.738
2010 projected	.291	.342	.355	.697
2010 status	under contract

prOPS는 미래에 이 선수의 타격, 삼진, 홈런, 볼넷 등의 수치를 예상해서 기록한 지표이며, 그냥 projected만 보셔도 될겁니다.

마틴의 대해서는 저런 수치가 아니더라도 반등하겠죠. 마틴이 풀타임 포수가 된지 3년째인데, 3년동안 백업포수의 덕을 가장 많이 본 해가 아닐까 싶습니다. 그만큼 어스무스가 부상없이 마틴의 맨토역할을 잘해줬다고 봅니다.

헛슨과 벨리아드의 경우는 다저스와 함께 할지에 대해 알 수없어서 일단 스킵하는거 좋으실듯...
가능성은 벨리아드가 더 높겠죠.