이혼문제 없다는 로건 화이트 이번에도 고딩 투수뽑나

 

Dodgers: McCourt divorce won't affect draft

By Tony Jackson
ESPNLosAngeles.com

LOS ANGELES -- Logan White, the Dodgers' assistant general manager for scouting, knew the question was coming on the eve of baseball's amateur draft. It is the question that always comes these days when you're talking about the Dodgers, whose owner, Frank McCourt, is in the midst of an expensive divorce.

“

The odds are always good that you'll be looking at a high school pitcher just because that seems to be what the draft has the most of. Obviously, the biggest thing is trying to separate them out. We feel comfortable taking [high-school] pitchers because while some teams are afraid of them, we have had good luck with them.

”-- Logan White, Dodgers assistant GM for scouting

But yes, White said, he does have enough money at his disposal to sign the players he drafts over the next two days -- especially because the Dodgers, as a consequence of going to their second consecutive National League Championship Series last fall, don't pick until late in the first round. (다저스 구단주 프랭크 맥코트의 비싼 이혼 문제로 인해서 다저스가 이번 드래프트에 계약하기 위해서 충분한 돈이 있는지에 대해서 많은 이들이 의문을 갖고 있다.하지만 로건 화이트는 다저스가 충분한 돈을 가지고 있다고 밝혔다.특히 지난 2년간 NL 챔피언 시리즈에서 다저스가떨어졌을만큼 정규시즌 성적이 좋았던지라 1라운드 후반 픽이기 때문이기도 하다.)

"I think sometimes people tend to misunderstand or misinterpret that just because we're not spending the same amount of money as certain other clubs, the reality of it is that we're picking 28th," White said. "If somebody goes out and signs Stephen Strasburg for $15 million, well, right there, they're $15 million ahead of us already."

Signing bonuses for draft picks tend to drop dramatically after the first 15. (1라운드 15픽 이후로는 사이닝 보너스가 급격히 떨어진다는 점에서 화이트는 28픽을 가지고 있는 다저스에게 돈이 있냐 없냐 그런 이야기들은 문제가 되지 않는다고 밝혔다.)

This year's draft class doesn't appear to be an especially deep one, and there probably isn't a player of the caliber of Strasburg, whom the Washington Nationals signed to a four-year, $15 million major league deal after taking him with the first overall pick last year. The Nationals have the first pick again and are likely to take Bryce Harper, a junior-college catcher-outfielder out of Southern Nevada.

The Dodgers, who have taken high school pitchers with their first pick in five of the eight drafts White has conducted for the club, stand a good chance of doing the same.

"The odds are always good that you'll be looking at a high school pitcher just because that seems to be what the draft has the most of," White said. "Obviously, the biggest thing is trying to separate them out. We feel comfortable taking [high-school] pitchers because while some teams are afraid of them, we have had good luck with them.

"We took [Chad] Billingsley and [Jonathan] Broxton, and now one of them is a front-line starter and the other is our closer, and they have certainly been a big reason we have gotten to the playoffs."

Of those first-round high school pitchers White has taken, Billingsley and Clayton Kershaware mainstays in the Dodgers' starting rotation, and a third, left-hander Scott Elbert, has some major league service time. The other two, Chris Withrow and Ethan Martin, came in 2007 and 2008 and probably are at least a year away from being ready for the majors. (지난 8번의 드래프트중 첫 픽에서 5번을 고교 투수를 뽑았던 화이트는 올해도 같은 일을 시행할 좋은 기회다.고딩 투수를 뽑는 것을 몇몇 팀들은 두려워 하면서 떼어놓으려고 한다는 점이다.그래서우리에게 그들을 택할 수 있는 행운이 찾아오고 그런 선택을 편안하게 느낀다.)

 1라운드 28픽으로 가능해 보이는 고교 투수들

A.J. Cole, RHP, Oviedo HS (FL)

Tyrell Jenkins, RHP, Henderson HS (TX)

                                                              Peter Tago, RHP, Dana Hills HS (CA)

Mike Foltynewicz, RHP, Minooka HS (IL)

Aaron Sanchez, RHP, Barstow HS (CA)

Cameron Bedrosian, RHP, East Coweta HS (GA)

From 1996 to 2005, 110 players were drafted in slots No. 15 through 25. Seventy-nine of those players have spent time in the major leagues, 50 have been more productive than replacement-level players, and 15 have been worth at least 10 wins above replacement.  Lance Berkman, CC Sabathia, Chase Utley, Scott Kazmir, Matt Cain, Cole Hamels, Matt Garza, Chad Billingsley, Nick Swisher, Brad Lidge, Jacoby Elsbury, Matt Thornton, Adam Kennedy, and James Loney were all selected among picks No. 15-25 during this ten-year period. (96년~05년까지 15픽~25픽 사이 110명의 선수가 뽑혔다.그중 79명이 빅리그에 올라왔고 50명이 대체 선수들보다 더 생산적이며 그중 15명은 적어도 10 WARP 가치 이상을 보여주고 있다.그들이 위 언급된 선수들이다.)

 First Round 15 ~ 25 Pick

 Columns No. 3-5 indicate the number of draftees who are projected to earn the indicated number of wins above replacement during their major league careers.

• "Oops" indicates the number of draftees who failed to develop into at least replacement-level major leaguers.

• Success rate is the percentage of draftees who developed into at least replacement-level players. 

• Avg. WAR is the average number of career wins above replacement earned thus far by draftees who developed into at least replacement-level players.

 투수쪽은 고교 투수쪽에서 팀의 1~2선발을 맡는 일명 대박난 경우가 대학 투수들에 비해 높았으나 전체적으로 성공률은 떨어졌습니다.High Risk - Reward 란 말이 괜히 나왔던게 아니죠.이에 비해 야수쪽은 더 다듬어지고 세련된 대학쪽 타자들의 성공률이 고교 선수들보다 훨씬 높았다고 합니다.특히 대학 인필더쪽에서 성공률도 높고 대박률도 높았다고 하네요.96~05 10년간 1라운드 중반 픽으로 봤을때는 대학 인필더를 뽑는 것이 가장 안정적이다란 평을 내릴 수 있겠네요.