BDD 11인이 예측한 09시즌 내셔널리그 서부지구

BDD ‘09 Predictions — National League West

by Brian Joseph on Friday, April 3, 2009 8:32 pm EDT | Permanent Link

10 writers from BDD and Jeremy Tomasulo who helped us out with the Rockies preview made our own predictions for the upcoming year. Now, we’re no Sports Illustrated when it comes to predictions (take that however you want to) but fresh off of our impressive run in last year’s postseason, we’re ready to put our two cents out there for everyone to enjoy… or mock. Also, following our predictions is a graph based on CHONE win projections with each team’s chances of reaching X amount of wins. Thanks to Bill Baer for his work here. (BDD가 뭐냐 생소하신 분이 있을텐데 별거 아닙니다.Baseball Digest Daily 의 약자죠.사이트 가보신분도 있을테고 뭐 그런 사이트도 있어 그런분도 있으실듯) 

We love L.A.! Of the 11 predictors, nine chose the Dodgers to conquer the NL West and one of the two that did not chose them as their Wild Card. The Giants and Diamondbacks finished tied on their average finish amongst the 11 predictors but the Giants were chosen to finish second more often than the D-backs. Our predictors saw little hope for the Rockies and even less for the Padres. Here’s our predictions: (11명의 전문가중 9명이 다저스의 지구 1위를 예측했고 남은 2명중 1명은 애리조나를 1명은 자이언츠를 예측했네요.)

1. Los Angeles Dodgers
Bill Baer’s Season Preview from March 27

BODOG Odds to Win Division: 7/5

It took a while for Manny Ramirez to sign this offseason and I’m going to go out on a limb and say these predictions would have looked a lot different if ManRam chose to sign elsewhere. The Dodgers’ pitching staff from ‘08 to ‘09 is different and that doesn’t guarantee it will be better. But it’s not enough to scare the majority of us off.

2. San Francisco Giants
Paul Bugala’s Season Preview from March 6

BODOG Odds to Win Division: 9/2

Are the Giants another example of the “Rays Effect” when it comes to our predictions? The Giants aren’t that young but not as old as their middle-of-the-road average of 27.9 indicates — thank the presence of 45-year-old Randy Johnson for that. For the Giants, it is about pitching: ‘08 Cy Young winner Tim Lincecum leads what could be one of the best rotations in the game. The concern is their lineup which produced just 3.95 runs/game last year — more than half a run below league average. Maybe we’re suckers for thinking they are good enough to finish second… or maybe they are the surprise team of 2009.

3. Arizona Diamondbacks
Michael Street’s Season Preview from March 15

BODOG Odds to Win Division: 8/5

Our predicted finish for the Giants and D-backs averaged out to roughly 2.5. The oddsmakers are much higher on Arizona than we are with the Dodgers not considered the runaway favorites BDD thinks they are. The Diamondbacks might have the best one-two punch in the National League with Brandon Webb and Dan Haren at the top of the rotation. Their offense was slightly below league average last year and Orlando Hudson and Adam Dunn are gone which should hurt their cause. This team is very similar to their ‘08 version and many were high on their outlook… especially after their torrid April. However, this very similar team only produced 82 wins last year.

4. Colorado Rockies
Jeremy Tomasulo’s Season Preview from March 9

BODOG Odds to Win Division: 8/1

Two years ago, the Rockies shocked everyone with their late season run which led to a World Series appearance. That run sucked in a lot of predictors last year and the Rox subsequently disappointed those who put their faith in Colorado. Now, they have to do it without perennial MVP candidate Matt Holliday who was shipped to Oakland. We’ll ask for a mulligan if we’re way off here but we’re not sweating that possibility too much.

5. San Diego Padres
Geoff Young’s Season Preview from March 3

BODOG Odds to Win Division: 10/1

In our NL Central predictions, we buried the Pirates six feet under. The Padres received an almost as deep preseason funeral from our predictors. Eight of our 11 writers put San Diego at the bottom of the division and no one put them higher than fourth. The addition of David Eckstein, Henry Blanco and Cliff Floyd shouldn’t be enough to expect their league-worst offense to vastly improve.

CHONE Projections (Graph Created By Bill Baer)

 위의 각 팀 이야기는 별거 아닌데다 다른데서도 많이 다룬지라 패스하고 이게 재밌는데 내셔널 서부지구 5팀이 올해 몇승을 달성할 수 있느냐를 확률적으로 보여준 그래프입니다.다저스 팬들이 어제 투표한거 보니 90승 이상이 60% 던데 올해는 88승 이상은 거둬야겠죠.서부지구에서 와일드 카드도 나오면 좋겠지만 일단 다저스는 목표는 90승 이상 마지노선은 88승으로 잡기를