팬그래프닷컴 다저스 Top 10

The Los Angeles Dodgers
2010 MLB Record: 80-82 (4th in the NL West)
Minor League Power Ranking: 17th (out of 30)
Click for: Last Year’s Top 10 Prospect List

The Prospects

1. Dee Gordon, SS
Acquired: Drafted 4th Round, 2008
2010 Level: AA (Southern League)
Opening Day Age: 22.11

Notes: Despite being the son of former big reliever Tom ‘Flash’ Gordon, Dee didn’t pick up baseball until his senior year of high school. What he lacks in polish, he makes up for in athleticism. His speed rates as an 80 on the scouting scale, allowing him to steal 126 bases over the past two season at a 73 percent clip. At the plate, Gordon is a contact-oriented hitter with little power. He posted a meager .077 ISO last year, and after seeing him take batting practice at the Futures Game, I don’t expect him to ever post an ISO much higher than .100 in the big leagues. His swing plane is flat, and his bat speed isn’t good enough to overcome the physical limitations of his 150-pound frame. That being said, he does a good job of barreling the ball, and that skill, coupled with his outstanding speed and ability to make contact, should allow him to hit for average. In the field, Gordon has all the tools to be a plus defender, but he makes too many errors on routine plays. It’s not altogether uncommon for young shortstops to pile up big error totals in the minor leagues and still go on to become solid defenders in the big leagues, and judging by his actions, I think with more experience he’ll make the necessary improvements to stay at short. At his peak, I see Gordon as close to a .300 hitter, with 40 steals, and average defense at short.

2. Zach Lee, RHP
Acquired: Drafted 1st Round, 2010
2010 Level: None
Opening Day Age: 19

Notes: In high school Lee committed to play quarterback for LSU, and leading up to the draft most reports indicated that he was headed to LSU. In fact, when the Dodgers selected him there were rumblings from fans suggesting that the Dodgers took him knowing he wouldn’t sign, in an attempt to save money. Those fears turned out to be unfounded, as the Dodgers lured Lee away from his LSU scholarship with a bonus of over $5 million, the forth highest bonus given out in 2010. On the mound, Lee offers a tantalizing combination of projection and polish. He is an exceptional athlete, and reports indicate that he has a clean delivery. His repertoire includes a low-90s fastball, a solid slider, and a change-up that is advanced for his age. Although the sky seems to be the limit for Lee, the usual caveats that come with high-school arms apply. You can dream on Lee and envision him anchoring a big-league staff, but there is too much risk to rank him ahead of Gordon.
디 고든(Dee Gordon)과 잭 리(Zach Lee)의 스카우팅 리포트는 BA와 완전 똑같아서 생략합니다.

3. Trayvon Robinson, CF
Acquired: Drafted 10th Round, 2005
2010 Level: AA (Southern League)
Opening Day Age: 23.7

Notes: Robinson is a solid prospect, but his ceiling is limited. On the one hand, Robinson is a solid athlete. He’s a plus runner, a good enough defender to play center in the big leagues, and at the plate, Robinson has improved in every season. While he only walked in 6.7 percent of his plate appearances in 2008, that number shot up to over ten percent in 2009 and all the way up to 14 percent this past season. His increased patience does not appear to have come at the expense of average or power, as Robinson hit .297 with a .138 ISO in 2010, the highest figures he has put up outside the California League. On the other hand, Robinson’s numbers were aided by an unsustainable .395 BABIP. It’s worth noting that he posted a .386 figure in 2009, so his BABIPs may always be above average, but to put those numbers in perspective, only three major league center fielders had BABIPs greater than .355 in 2010- Carlos Gonzalez, Josh Hamilton, and Austin Jackson. Despite the improved plate discipline, Robinson still swings-and-misses too often, striking out in almost 29 percent of his at-bats in 2010. With his struggles to make contact, and a likely regression in his BABIP, Robinson seems like a .260 hitter in the big leagues, albeit one who provides a high OBP. Those numbers, combined with modest power and the ability to play center, likely make Robinson a regular.
로빈슨은 솔리드한 프로스펙터이지만, 실링에는 한계가 있다. 반면, 솔리드한 운동신경을 지니고 있으며 플러스 주자이기도 하며, 빅리그에서 CF를 볼만큼 좋은 수비력을 지니고 있기도 하다. 로빈슨은 매년 성장하는 모습을 보여주고 있는데, 08시즌만 하더라도 볼넷비율이 6.7%에 불과했지만, 09시즌에 10%를 넘어섰으며 작년에는 14%까지 올라갔다. 로빈슨의 이런 볼넷 증가는 타율이나 파워의 감소를 하면서도 증가한 것은 아니다. 그는 작년에 .297의 타율과 ISO지수가 .138나 되었으며 이 수치는 CAL에서도 수준급이다. 하지만, 그는 BABIP에서 너무나도 이익을 본 것을 고려하지 않을 수없다. 개선된 선구안에도 불구하고 여전히 헛스윙비율이 많으며 작년 타석대비 29%나 삼진을 당했다. BABIP수치가 떨어지고 컨택이 안된다면 높은 출루율을 기록함에도 불구하고 그는 빅리그에서 .260대의 타율을 기록할 것으로 보인다.

4. Jerry Sands, COF/1B
Acquired: Drafted 25th Round, 2008
2010 Level: Low A/AA
Opening Day Age: 23.6

Notes: A relative unknown entering the year, Sands had a monster 2010 season. He slugged 35 home runs and hit .301 across two levels. Despite turning twenty-three in September, Sands began the season in the Midwest League. Even though he raked to the tune of an otherworldly 333/432/646 line over 287 plate appearances, many were eager to see how he would fair against more age-appropriate competition before buying in. After his promotion to AA, Sands continued to hit, posting a 270/360/529 line, despite a .286 BABIP. In addition to power, Sands is a patient hitter. He had a 12.4 BB% in 2010, and for a power-hitter, his strikeout rate of 24 percent is respectable. A capable defender at first and in either corner outfield spot, Sands has the makings of a bat-first corner outfielder, but I’d like to see some more data from the higher levels before I completely buy in.
2010시즌에 들어서기전에 (심지어 다저스팬들조차도) 생소한 샌즈는 몬스터시즌을 만들어냈다. 그는 2개의 레벨에서 .301의 타율과 35개의 홈런을 때려냈다. 많은 나이임에도 불구하고 그는 시즌을 MWL에서 시작했지만, 그곳에서 287타석동안 말도안되는 .333/.432/.646의 스텟을 찍어냈지만, 많은 사람들은 그가 '그 나이대의 선수'와 대결하는 모습을 보고 싶어했다. 승격된 후 .286의 BABIP에도 불구하고 .270/.360/.529의 성적을 찍어냈다. 작년에 12.4%의 볼넷 비율을 기록했는데, 파워히터치고는 24%에 불과한 삼진율만을 기록했다. 수비수로써 1루와 코너외야를 모두 볼 수 있는 샌즈는 코너외야수로써 더 괜찮은 선택이 될 수 있을 것이다.

5. Kenley Jansen, RHP
Acquired: Signed as a Free Agent, 2004 (Curacao)
2010 Level: Hi A/AA/MLB
Opening Day Age: 23.6

Notes: Signed out of Curacao in 2004, Jansen began his pro career as a catcher, but after several nondescript seasons with the bat, the Dodgers moved him to the mound in 2009. Jansen’s arm strength has enabled him to make the transition fairly seamlessly. His fastball sits in the mid-to-uper 90s, and his slider is good enough to keep hitters off-balance. On the strength of those two pitches, Jansen has put up some ridiculous strikeout numbers. He posted a 15.6 K/9 across Hi A and AA before being promoted to the big leagues where he still managed a K/9 of 13.7. Jansen’s biggest problem is his control. He has walked over five batters per nine innings over the course of his career, and even though he is new to the mound, he never figures to have even average control. The natural comparison for Jansen is Carlos Marmol, another converted catcher who racks up big strikeout and walk totals. Jansen isn’t likely to have the same impact as Marmol, as Marmol’s breaking ball is much better, but Jansen should nonetheless find a role as a solid 7th/8th inning option.
04년에 다저스와 계약했지만, 허접한 공격스텟으로 인해 투수로 컨버전한 잰슨은 90마일 중후반대의 페스트볼과 슬라이더를 지니고 있다. 그가 올해 빅리그로 승격되기 전에 상위 싱글 A와 AA에서 터무니없는 삼진비율을 보여줬었다. 하지만, 잰슨의 가장 큰 문제점은 컨트롤인데, 그의 (짧은) 커리어에서 9이닝당 5개이상의 볼넷을 기록하고 있다는 것이다. 컵스의 카를로스 마몰(Carlos Marmol)과 비교하면 그와 비슷한 임펙트를 줄 것으로 생각지는 않는다. 즉, 마몰의 브레이킹 볼이 더 좋겠지만, 그래도 잰슨의 더 솔리드한 7/8회 이닝을 소화할 선수로 생각된다.

6. Rubby De La Rosa, RHP
Acquired: Signed as a Free Agent, 2007 (Dominican Republic)
2010 Level: Low A/AA
Opening Day Age: 22.1

Notes: De La Rosa had a breakout 2010 season. The 6’1″, 170-pound right-hander is a true fire-baller. He can run his fastball into the upper 90s, and it has some sink to it allowing him to rack up a solid ground-ball rate of 58% in 2010. Despite an electric fastball, De La Rosa’s strikeout numbers are pedestrian. His K/9 fell from 8.34 in the Midwest League to 6.88 when he was promoted to AA. The culprit seems to be his below-average secondary stuff, and De La Rosa’s ultimate role will be determined by the development of his breaking ball. With some improvement, De La Rosa would profile as a solid starter. Even if his off-speed pitches remain below average, his fastball is likely good enough that he could profile in the pen. There is some risk with De La Rosa, but also the chance for considerable reward.
브레이크아웃 시즌을 보낸 루비 데 라 로사는 90마일 후반대의 파이어볼러이며, 그라운더 볼러이기도 하다. 그는 작년에 58%나 되는 그라운드 볼 비율을 자랑하기도 했다. 엄청난 페스트볼에도 불구하고 데 라 로사의 삼진수치는 평범함에 가깝다고 볼 수 있다. 2010시즌은 MWL에서 시작했는데, 그 곳에서 9이닝당 8.34개를 찍어냈지만, AA로 승격된 후에는 6.88개로 감소했다. 결국 데 라 로사의 미래 룰(role)은 그의 브레이킹 볼 발전 여하에 달렸다고 볼 수 있을 것이다. 그가 결국 개선된다면 솔리드한 선발이 될 것이지만, 그의 오프-스피드 피칭이 (여전히) 허접하다면 페스트볼의 장기를 살려 불펜에 어울리는 선수가 될 것으로 생각된다.

7. Allen ‘Carl’ Webster, RHP
Acquired: Drafted 18th Round, 2008
2010 Level: Low A (Midwest League)
Opening Day Age: 21.2

Notes: An unheralded 18th round pick in 2008, Webster established himself on the prospect scene with an exceptional 2009 campaign in which his FIP never exceeded 2.39 at two rookie-level stops. Billed as a fairly polished arm, Webster made his full-season debut in 2010 in solid-if-unspectacular fashion. He threw 131.1 innings in the Midwest League. While his 3.02 ERA was still impressive, it masked a 7.81 K/9 (a drop of close to two strikeouts per 9 over his 2009 rate), and a BB/9 that increased to 3.63. Despite those concerns, Baseball America ranked him 11th on their Midwest League top 20 (for reference, De La Rosa ranked 15th and Sands 18th). The numbers Webster put up are respectable for a twenty year old, but when combined with his scouting reports, I have to question his ultimate ceiling. According to Baseball Prospectus’ Kevin Goldstein, Webster’s stuff is pretty average across the board- a low-90s fastball, a breaking ball that, while not a swing-and-miss offering, is solid, and an above-average changeup. Even pitchers who don’t have major league futures can often excel in the lower levels with off-speed stuff and some command. The lower you go the bigger the strike zone tends to be and the more will hitters are to expand the zone. The fact that a three-pitch command guy like Webster didn’t put up more impressive numbers gives me some cause for concern. I think Webster has a future in the big leagues, but I’d be surprised if he profiled as more than a 4th or 5th starter.
고딩때 유격수를 주로 봤던 앨런 웹스터는 09시즌에 엄청나게 성장했다. 작년에 MWL에서 풀시즌을 소화한 웹스터는 131.1이닝을 소화하면서 3.02ERA와 9이닝당 7.81개의 (그렇지만 09시즌에 비해 2개가랑 떨어진)삼진을 기록했으며, 9이닝당 볼넷은 3.63개를 기록했다. 작년 9월에 BA에 의해 발행된 MWL Top 20에서 11위를 기록했는데, 20살의 선수치고는 괜찮은 수치임에도 불구하고 스카우팅 리포터에서 그의 실링에 관해 의문점을 제기하기도 했다. BP의 케빈 골드스타인에 따르면 웹스터의 스터프는 평범한 수준(90마일 초반대의 페스트볼 & 헛스윙을 유도하지 못하는 브레이킹 볼 & 평균 이상의 체인지업)이라고 표현했다. 하지만, 난 웹스터가 빅리그에서 4~5선발 이상의 몫을 해내더라도 결코 놀라지는 않을 것이다.

8. Aaron Miller, LHP
Acquired: Drafted 1st Round Supplemental, 2009
2010 Level: Hi A/AA
Opening Day Age: 23.6

Notes: A two-way player at Baylor, Miller split his time between the outfield and the mound in college, but it quickly became clear that his professional future lay on the mound. Miller got off to a good start in 2010. In 101.2 innings in the hitter-friendly California league, Miller posted a solid 3.58 FIP. But after a promotion to AA, Miller completely lost the strike zone. His BB/9 increased from 4.25 in Hi A to an abysmal 7.04 in AA. Miller’s walk rates were under 3 in his major league debut last season, so it’s possible that his mechanics simply got out of whack at the end of the season, and he’ll regain his old form in 2011. He is, however, primarily a two-pitch guy, working off his fastball and slider, and for him to profile as a starter he’ll need to improve both his change and his control. I don’t like the odds of him being able to do both. With that being said, even with modest improvement with his control he could profile as a valuable left-handed set-up guy.
베일러 대학 시절 투웨이 선수였던 밀러는 프로에 와서 투수로만 집중하게 되었다. 2010시즌 시작은 아주 좋았는데, 타자친화적인 CAL에서 101.2이닝동안 3.58FIP을 기록했다. 하지만, AA로 승격해서는 스트라익 존을 상실했다. 상위 싱글 A에서 9이닝당 4.25개의 볼넷을 기록했던 밀러는 AA에서는 7.04개까치 치솟았다. 밀러는 극단적인 투피쳐 스타일이기때문에 그가 선발로써 계속해서 프로생활을 유지하기 위해서는 체인지업과 컨트롤의 개선이 필수적일 것이다.

9. Chris Withrow, RHP
Acquired: Drafted 1st Round, 2007
2010 Level: AA (Southern League)
Opening Day Age: 22

Notes: Coming into the season, Withrow was near the top of many Dodger prospect lists, and even featured prominently in many top 100 lists, but after a disappointing 2010 season he’s seen his prospect status plummet. Withrow spent 2010 back in AA, but failed to build off his impressive 2009 season. When Withrow is right, he has the power stuff to rack up big strikeout totals, but it didn’t appear that he was right for much of the year. While his control has always been spotty, it got worse in 2010, fueling a BB/9 of 4.79. His K/9 also went backward last year. While he struck out close to 11 batters per 9 in the California League in 2009, that rate fell to 8.33 in 2010. Withrow can’t afford to lose strikeouts, because his control is spotty and his ground-ball rates have been blow average throughout his career. His 5.97 ERA overstates his struggles, but if he can’t regain some of his prior form in 2011, Withrow could be a candidate to move to the pen in 2012 in hopes of rejuvenating his career. Having not seen him this year, it’s tough to gauge the likelihood that he bounces back, but I wouldn’t write him off.
2010시즌에 들어가기 전에 위드로우는 다저스 프로스펙터 리스트에서 거의 탑수준이었고, 대부분의 유망주 사이트에서 Top 100순위에서 확실하게 들어갈 선수로 지목되기도 했었다. 하지만, 그는 아주 실망스러운 성적을 기록했다. 위드로우가 좋은때 삼진을 무수하게 잡아낼 수 있는 스터프를 지녔다. 그의 고질적인 문제점이라고 할 수 있는 컨트롤에 대해서 9이닝당 4.79개까지 치솟았으며 삼진비율은 되려 퇴보했다. 09시즌 CAL에서 9이닝당 11개에 가까운 삼진을 잡아내기도 했지만, 작년에는 8.33개까지 떨어졌다. 이런 점때문에 위드로우의 삼진율을 결코(?) 떨어져서는 안되는 이유이다. 그는 여전히 컨트롤에 문제점을 가지고 있는데다가 그렇게 많은 그라운드 볼을 양산해내지도 못하는 투수이기때문이다. 만약 위드로우가 올해도 작년처럼 삽질을 한다면 다저스는 그를 2012년 불펜 후보로 생각할 수도 있을 것이다.

10. Garrett Gould, RHP
Acquired: Drafted 2nd Round, 2009
2010 Level: RC (Pioneer League)
Opening Day Age: 19.8

Notes: Heading into the 2009 draft, many believed Gould was headed to Witchita State, but the Dodgers picked him in the second round and were able to sign him for $900,000. A high-school quarterback, Gould is a solid athlete, and standing 6’4″ 190, he has a projectable pitcher’s frame. Since signing, Gould hasn’t quite lived up to the lofty expectations placed on him. He spent all of 2010 in the Pioneer League, and while his numbers were solid, he didn’t dominate. In 57.2 innings he racked up a K/9 of 8.12, a BB/9 of 3.12, and a GB% of 55 percent. In spite of just a so-so 2010 season, I think Gould is one of the bigger sleepers in the system. His biggest problem is velocity. Reports indicate that he was sat in the upper-80s most of the year, and without a bump in velocity his upside is limited. But it’s not unusual for high school arms to see a jump in velocity in their second full professional season. In the second year, arms get acclimated to the increased workload and players begin to see the benefits of professional workouts. Gould will head to the Midwest League in 2011, and if he sees a spike in velocity he could have a big year.
09년 드레프트가 열리기에 앞서 많은 사람들은 굴드가 위치타 주립대로 향할 것이라고 예측했다. 하지만, 다저스는 그를 2라운드로 지명하면서 0.9M이나 줬다. 굴드는 솔리드한 운동신경을 보유했고, 투수로써 좋은 체격을 지녔다. 2010시즌 전체를 PL에서 소비한 굴드의 스텟은 솔리드하긴 했지만, 도미네이트한 수준까지는 아니었다. 57.2이닝동안 8.12개의 삼진과 3.12개의 볼넷, 55%의 그라운드 볼 비율을 기록하기도 했다. 그럭저럭 2010시즌을 보냈지만, 나는 다저스 프로스펙터중에서 굴드가 슬리퍼가 될 것이라고 생각한다. 굴드의 가장 큰 문제점이라고 할 수 있는 것은 구속일 것이다. 리포터에 따르면 시즌 대부분을 80마일 후반대를 기록했으며, 구속의 증가없이는 실링도 제한이 있을 것이다. 물론 고딩출신이 2년째(올해)에 구속증가를 하는 것은 평범한 것이기에 그의 암 슬롯이 익숙해지고, 체계적인 훈련을 계속해서 받는다면 증가할 것으로 생각된다. 굴드는 올해 MWL에 향할 것으로 예상된다.