룰 5 드레프트 보호선수 예측

This month, the Dodgers are going to add players to their 40 man roster in advance of the Rule 5 draft.  Jamie Hoffman has already been added, but the team has until Nov 20 to set their rosters so there may be more players who join him.  Therefore, I wanted to do a preview of the players who could potentially get added.  First, for those not exactly familiar with the Rule 5 draft or the timing of when players need to be added to the 40 man roster in order to be protected, here is a summary.

Players are eligible for selection in the Rule 5 draft who are not on their major league organization's 40-man roster and:

Were signed at age 19 or older and have been in the organization for three full years, so not counting the year that they were signed.  So in reality, players who were signed at age 19 or older and have parts of 4 years with the organization, they are eligible for the Rule 5 draft.  For example, if a player is signed in 2007 at 19+ years old, they will have been in the system for 2007 (half), 2008 (full), 2009 (full) and 2010 (full), and they would be eligible in the Dec. 2010 Rule 5 draft.

OR

Were signed at age 18 or younger and have been in the organization for four (full) years, so not counting the year that they were signed.  So in reality, players who were signed at 18 years old or younger and have parts of 5 years with the organization, they are eligible for the Rule 5 draft.  For example, if a player is signed in 2006 at 18 years old or younger, they will have been in the system for 2006 (half), 2007 (full), 2008 (full), 2009 (full) and 2010 (full), and they would be eligible in the Dec. 2010 Rule 5 draft.

Now let’s look at the different groups of players who are eligible for the 2010 Rule 5 draft.  We’ll start with college players drafted in 2007, plus the high school players drafted in 2007 and were 19 years old when they signed.  For the Dodgers, this list includes:

2007 College Players (& 19-year old HS players):

Justin Miller

James Adkins

Tim Sexton

Jaime Pedroza

Matt Wallach

Bobby Blevins

Jessie Mier

Alex Garabedian

Also for the 2010 Rule 5 draft, high school players drafted in 2006 who were 18 years old or younger when signed are eligible for the Rule 5 draft.  For the Dodgers, this list includes:

2006 High School Players  (18 yrs old when signed):

Jaime Ortiz

Gorman Erickson

Eric Thompson

Then of course there are the players who were drafted by the Dodgers and have already been eligible for prior Rule 5 drafts, yet have not been selected and are still with the Dodgers.  These players are again eligible for the 2010 Rule 5 draft, and this list includes:

Previously Eligible  Drafted Players:

Cory Wade Justin Sellers

Josh Wall

Scott Van Slyke

David Pfeiffer

Esteban Lopez Cody White Jesus Castillo

Another small group relates to the players who were not drafted, but were signed as non drafted free agents.  I am excluding the international free agents from this group because they are going to be listed below.  Since all non-drafted free agents are older than 18 when signed, the non-drafted free agents signed in 2007 are eligible for the Rule 5 draft for the first time.  This group includes:

Non Drafted FA signed in 2007 or Prior:

Matthew Sartor (Signed in July of 2007)

Blake Brannon (Signed in June of 2007)

Finally, there are the international free agents.  Since pretty much all international free agents are signed when they are 18 years old or younger, all international free agents signed in 2006 or prior are eligible for the 2010 Rule 5 draft.  These players include:

2006 or prior signed Foreign Players (signed before season ended in 2006):

Gari Tavarez (Signed in April of 2006)

Marlon Urriola (Signed in May of 2006)

Pedro Guerrero (Signed in July of 2006)

Rafael Ynoa (Signed in April of 2006)

Geison Aguasviva (Signed in Dec of 2005)

Alfredo Silverio (signed in 2003)

Fransisco Felix (signed in 2003)

Elian Herrera (signed in 2003)

Mario Alvarez (signed in 2003)

Jesus Rodriguez (signed in 2005)

Thomas Melgarejo (signed in 2005)

Eduardo Perez (signed in 2002)

Miguel Sanfler (signed in 2002)

Keyter Collado (signed in 2004)

Luis Vasquez (signed in 2003)

Johan Garcia (signed in 2005)

Gabriel Gutierrez (signed in 2002)

Christian Lara (signed in 2003 by Red Sox)

Alberto Bastardo (signed in 2002 by Baltimore)

OK, now that we’ve identified all of the players who are eligible for the Rule 5 draft, let’s look at the players who are most likely to get added to the 40 man roster in order to protect them from the Rule 5 draft.  Nobody has any idea how many players the Dodgers are going to add to their 40 roster, but right now they have 6 open spots.  However the team will obviously want to leave room for potential free agent signings, so it’s all a numbers game.  Another thing to keep in mind is that in November of 2011, the Dodgers are going to have a big group of players who they are going to need to be added to the 40 man roster, so they might actually add less players this year in order to save room for the 2011 class.  The players who will potentially need to be added to the 40 man roster after the 2011 season include Chris Withrow, Ethan Martin, Jerry Sands, Josh Lindblom, Dee Gordon, Kyle Russell, Pedro Baez, and Rubby De La Rosa, among others.  That 2011 group is much better than this year’s group.

The Must Adds

In November of 2009, the Dodgers added 4 players to their 40 man roster: Kenley Jansen, Trayvon Robinson, Ivan De Jesus, and Javy Guerra.  For the most part, of the players added last year were obvious additions.  In 2010, however, things aren’t so clear.  The one thing I can say, though, is that relief pitchers are the most selected players in the Rule 5 draft, so the Dodgers will want to protect their most valuable home grown bullpen arm who is subject to the rule 5 draft.

Justin Miller – Miller has turned into a solid relief pitcher, and I’m sure any team would love to have him in their system.  A ground ball pitcher, Miller would be easy to hide at the end of the bullpen if any team were to select him in the Rule 5 draft.  Therefore, I’m pretty confident that the Dodgers will add him to the 40 man roster because he has big league potential and is not worth losing.  I know he’s having a rough time in the AFL, but that shouldn’t change anything since he proved himself during the 2010 season.

The Might Adds

Within the Might Add category, I’m going to have a few separate subgroups.  See each group below:

The Early Draft Picks

The worst nightmare for any team is to see a highly drafted player, whom they have invested a lot of time and money into, see that player thrive with another team.  It is for that reason that the Dodgers could potentially added one or more of these high draft picks to their 40 man despite their average or below average stats.

James Adkins – Adkins has been a huge disappointment since being selected in the supplemental first round in 2007, but he’s a big bodied lefty reliever that some team might just take a chance on.  He rebounded slightly in 2010 as a reliever, and was also  very good against lefty hitters.  Are the Dodgers willing to possibly let him go after investing $787,500 in him, or will they add him to their roster?

Josh Wall – While Wall has been eligible for the Rule 5 draft in previous years, 2010 is the first time he’s had a solid season since being eligible.  Even though Wall was only playing in the Midwest League, he does have experience in Hi-A.  In addition, Wall is still relatively young and has a great pitchers frame.  His solid numbers in 2010 combined with the fact that he was a 2nd round pick might just be enough for the Dodgers to add him to their 40 man roster.

The Borderline Prospects

These players all appear to be long shots to be added to the 40 man roster, but since each of these guys has been and/or still is considered Dodger prospect to a certain extent, I thought I’d at least mention them here.

Scott Van Slyke – Last year, Van Slyke was coming of a huge season in the California League and there were several people who thought would get added to the Dodgers 40 man roster.  I disagreed, saying that there was no way he’d be able to hit major league pitching and that nobody would take a chance on him.  Well I was right last year, and I obviously don’t think he’ll get added to the 40 man roster this year either.  

Alfredo Silverio – Considered by Baseball America to be a top 20 prospect heading into the 2010 season, Silverio initially struggled in the California League this year.  However he caught fire in the 2^nd half and ended the year with solid stats.  He has been eligible for the Rule 5 draft in years past and obviously hasn’t gotten selected, so despite the additional year of experience I don’t think he’ll added to the 40 man roster or selected in the Rule 5 draft this year.

Matt Wallach – Wallach got his name on the Dodger prospect radar after having a solid season in 2010, which he split between HiA and AA.  But honestly has anyone ever spent a Rule 5 pick on a potential back up catcher? 

Jaime Pedroza – This is Pedroza’s first year being eligible for the Rule 5 draft, but I don’t think the Dodgers will add him to the 40 man roster.  Despite having a solid year in AA, I don’t see why any team would select a 5’8" middle infielder in the Rule 5 draft, so why would the Dodgers worry about protecting him by adding him to their roster?

Miscellaneous Group

These players all have a chance to be added to the 40 man roster for various reasons.  From the bullpen arms to the previous big league players to the insurance policies, each guy warrants at least a mention. 

Cory Wade – Wade has had an interesting career thus far.  He jumped from AA to the majors back in 2008 and had an outstanding season, but since then injuries have significantly altered his career to the point where he is no longer on the Dodgers 40 man roster.  Still just 27 years old, the Dodgers may want to add Wade back to their roster to give him another shot in 2011.

Tim Sexton – Sexton had a solid year in the California League in 2009, but took a big step back in 2010.  Sexton got off to a mediocre start in AA, but his ERA rose to over 5 and he was sent back down to the 66ers in August.  Once back in Inland Empire, he was terrible and had a 7.07 ERA.  He’s a lanky player who seems to still have some projection left in him since he’s just 23 years old.  Even though he was a 25th round pick, the Dodgers spent a decent amount of money to sign him, so he might be worth adding to the 40 man roster in case another team is willing to take a chance on him in the Rule 5 draft.

Geison Aguasviva – Aguasviva has shown flashes of brilliance over the past few years and is a pretty good Dodger prospect.  If the Dodgers really like him and think he has potential as a big leaguer as a left handed reliever, they might be conservative and add him to their 40 man roster to prevent another team from stealing him and stashing him at the back of a big league bullpen.

Alberto Bastardo – At best, Bastardo is an insurance option for the Dodgers as a starting pitcher.  He can probably be replaced by a bunch of other 2011 spring training invitees, so I think his chances of being added to the roster are slim.

David Pfeiffer – The Dodgers already resigned Pfeiffer this offseason, so they clearly thing he is worth keeping around.  However, he almost certainly won’t warrant a spot on the 40 man roster despite a pretty solid season in AA. 

Justin Sellers – Sellers got the chance to play in AAA this year and proved his worth with 14 homers and an .867 OPS.  Sure he may have been helped by the hitter friendly Pacific Coast League, but even still this is a shortstop we are talking about so those are some pretty good numbers.  He was eligible for the rule 5 draft last year, but flew under the radar in 2009 while in AA.  This year his performance might just warrant an addition to the 40 man roster.

TBLA에서 가져온 장문의 글입니다. 원문에도 나와 있지만 진정 마리아픈 시절은 내년 시즌 직후죠. 위드로우, 마틴, 샌즈, 린드불럼, 디 고든,카일 러셀, 루비 데 라 로사 등이 동시에 RULE 5 대상이 되니까요. 올해는 저스틴 밀러 한 명만 더 올린대도 저도 뭐 만족합니다. 내년에 잉여들 대량방출하고 코어들을 올려야 하니 말이지요. 저스틴 셀러스의 경우 조금의 미련은 있습니다만.....ㅋㅋㅋ 한명 정도 더 꼽으라면 저는 엣킨스보다는 조쉬 ㅇ월이 좀 더 끌리는군요. 우리 다른 필진님들 생각은 아떠신가요???