다저스- 우리 예전같지 않아 VS 피비- 그래봐야 내 한 끼 식사

Breaking Down Peavy and Kuroda

 by Brendan Scolari on Apr 6, 2009 4:05 AM PDT in Events  0 comments

After five months of waiting, it's finally gameday again. Today, Hiroki Kuroda and Jake Peavy will be squaring off in what should be a great opening day. Let's take a look at how each pitcher pitches and how they might do during the game. Here's the career statistics for the projected starters against Peavy and Kuroda. (내일 다저스는 샌디에고 구장으로 가서 시즌 개막전을 치루는데 상대가 하필 제이크 피비입니다.제이크 피비는 다저스를 상대로 22경기에 나와서 13승 1패 2.32 ERA는 오스왈트가 레즈를 지배했던 것의 동급이라고 할만큼 경기를 지배했습니다.)

Dodgers vs. Peavy	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG
Martin	30	.148/.233/.185
Loney	20	.263/.300/.684
Hudson	27	.292/.246/.417
Furcal	44	.286/.318/.667
Blake	5	.500/.600/.750
Manny	5	.250/200/.250
Kemp	2	.000/.500/.000
Ethier	33	.138/.212/.138

Because Peavy is a pretty darn good pitcher, these guys haven't had a lot of success off of him. Manny and Blake spent their whole career until July of last year in the AL, so they haven't faced Peavy much. Kemp hasn't hardly faced him because Kemp wasn't allowed to start against "tough righties" much. Of the group, only Loney and Furcal have ever hit a home run off of Peavy. Loney's got 2 doubles and 2 bombs in 20 PA while Furcal has 3 doubles, 2 triples, and 3 homers in 44 PA. Ethier seems to struggle the most against Peavy, with no extra base hits and 9 K's. (제이크 피비를 상대로 해서 다저스 타자들의 성적은 위 상대 성적에 비하면 그렇게 심하게 나쁜 편은 아닙니다.로니와 퍼칼이 피비를 상대로 상당히 강한편이고 낮은 볼을 잘 치는 블레이크도 5타수에 불과하지만 좋은 성적을 기록중입니다.추타율과 출루율을 전체적으로 보면 알 수 있지만 볼넷조차 쉽게 얻지 못했다는 것을 알 수 있죠.)

Peavy, the 2007 NL Cy Young Winner, is 3-0 on Opening Day and 13-1 with a 2.32 ERA in 22 starts against the Dodgers for his career. Obviously, he's had their number. He's got a lifetime 2.77 ERA at Petco and holds batters to a .613 OPS there. (07년 사이영 수상자인 피비는 개막전에 3승 무패에 펫코 파크에서는 2.77 ERA와 피 OPS도 .613 에 그쳤다고 합니다.연타로 무너뜨리기는 쉽지 않고 역시 믿을건 출루하고 한방일듯)

Jake Peavy is a similiar pitcher to Kuroda. They both throw about the same speed and use a fastball-slider combination as their main pitches. What sets Peavy apart from even someone as good as Kuroda though is the absurd amount of movement he generates.

type	Speed (MPH)	Break x (inches)	Break z (inches)	Balls	Strikes Called	Strikes Swinging	Foul/Foul tip	In play outs	Singles	Doubles	Triples	Home Runs
Fastball	93	-7.75	7.26	385	216	67	175	114	37	9	2	7
Curveball	78.23	9.47	-3.45	38	7	19	14	19	2	0	0	1
Slider	83.91	4	1.71	396	144	173	197	122	44	8	1	7
Change	84.27	-5.7	2.3	26	6	13	11	5	4	0	1	1
Splitter	92.16	-4.45	8.03	191	130	41	120	54	16	7	0	2

 

He's got a 5 pitch repertoire, although he throws either fastball or slider at least 3/4 of the time. His curve and change-up are just show me pitches used to steal a strike. You'll notice during the game that his fastball has wicked movement. You can see in the chart that it breaks more than 2 inches more than Kuroda's fastball on average even though they throw about the same speed. HIs slider also breaks hard away from righties and averages about 3.5 inches more break than Kuroda's. These subtle differences help to generate Peavy's huge strikeout rate. (제이크 피비는 5가지 구질 레퍼토리를 지녔는데 사실상 쓰는 구질의 3/4은 패스트볼과 슬라이더라고 합니다.즉 커브와 체인지업은 앞선 구질을 쓰기 위해 보여주는 구질이라고 하네요.개인적으로 피비의 체인지업이 괜찮던데 이 구질이 관건일듯.특히 피비하면 지저분한 패스트볼과 휘어져 나가는 슬라이더죠.)

Jake Peavy got batters to chase pitches more than anyone else in the MLB last year, getting swings on 32.4% of his pitches out of the strike zone. He also ended up with the third lowest strike percentage, 47.6%. Peavy is able to do this because his pitches move so much. This fools hitters and makes them swing at pitches that are much more difficult to hit. One of the keys to the game for the Dodgers will be to lay off his pitches out of the zone, particularly his nasty slider, and force him to throw something they can hit. Because of  Peavy's tendency to throw a lot of balls, he averaged 4.03 pitches per plate appearance last year, much higher than the league average. If the Dodgers can grind out at bats they could force the Padres into their relatively weak bullpen early in the game, giving themselves a huge advantage. (제이크 피비의 공중 스트라익존에 안 들어왔던 공에 32.4% 로 어떤 투수보다도 많이 타자들이 헛스윙을 했고 그렇기에 스트라익 퍼센트지는 3번째로 가장 낮은 47.6% 밖에 되지 않았다고 하네요.존에 들어오면 아무리 좋은 피비의 공이라도 타자들이 칠 수 있지만 볼을 잘 던지는 투수이기에 타자들이 까다롭다는 이야기겠죠.뭐 일부러 볼을 던질수도 있지만 제구가 안되는데도 타자가 속는 경우도 많았던 걸로 기억합니다.작년에 한 타자당 4.03 투구수를 던지면서 리그 평균보다 훨씬 높은 투구를 기록했다고 합니다.피비의 유일한 단점중 하나죠.많은 이닝을 못 먹어준다는 것과 완투비율이 매우 낮다는 것.특히 다혈질이라서 피비를 흥분시키는게 승리의 지름길이기도 합니다.) 

I would look to these two aspects of these pitchers to see how the Dodgers fare in the game. Peavy is always a huge challenge for any team, but if Kuroda can locate his slider and the Dodgers can lay off (or at least fight off) of some of Peavy's better pitches and get Peavy out of the game then the Dodgers should be able to notch their first victory of the season.

 

DODGERS
Rafael Furcal - 6
Orlando Hudson - 4
Manny Ramirez - 7
Andre Ethier - 9
Russell Martin - 2
James Loney - 3
Matt Kemp - 8
Casey Blake - 5

 

 다저스가 낼 라인업이 이대로 갈지는 모르겠지만 4번타자까지는 고정이고 선수는 그대로 나올겁니다.역시나 퍼칼과 허드슨의 테이블 세터진의 출루가 관건이 될 것 같고 하위타선에서 블레이크가 키 플레이어가 될 것 같습니다.결국 낼은 많은 점수가 나기 힘들고 3점 승부로 보이고 양팀 불펜도 여차하면 총동원될 수 있기에 제이크 피비를 7회에도 올라오게 하느냐 마느냐 싸움일 것 같네요.