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Dodgers now clear NL West favorite. (Keith Law)
The Los Angeles Dodgers' spending spree, which may only be interrupted by the heat death of the universe, continued in huge fashion this weekend with their reported agreement with free-agent starter Zack Greinke and signing of Korean lefty Hyun-jin Ryu, whom they had won negotiating rights to via the posting system. Greinke gives them one of the best nominal No. 2 starters in the game, an ace in most rotations, while Ryu will join the back of the team's rotation but could eventually end up in the 'pen.
Greinke was the top free-agent starter available this offseason and his reported six-year, $147 million contract -- now the highest ever for a right-hander -- was probably driven up by three other factors. One, the Dodgers are operating their own currency system independent of the U.S. Treasury, inspired no doubt by my great-great-great-uncle John. Two, Greinke was far and away the best starter available in free agency this year, the only one with even the potential to post a 6-WAR season. If you wanted an ace, it was Greinke or bust, with the next group of arms all looking more like good mid-rotation guys. Three, perhaps most importantly of all, baseball teams are swimming in cash, with no place else to put it but into the major league roster.
The current CBA curtailed spending on amateur talent even as the value of that talent has been increasing. If you can't put all this extra cash into the Rule 4 draft or into Latin America, you're going to put it into improving your big league club -- unless you own the Miami Marlins, in which case you're going to put it in your pockets.
I have never bought into the argument that Greinke's history with social anxiety disorder and depression makes him a poor fit for a large market -- there's a joke to be made here about the number of therapists in L.A. -- and I'm glad to see that the Dodgers don't buy it, either. Greinke is capable of pitching at a high level in any market, and he's an unusually good bet to stay healthy because his delivery is low effort and he tends to pace himself during games, preserving his best stuff for higher-leverage situations. No starting pitcher is likely to outperform the contract Greinke just got, but he's got a better chance than most to make it look good in the end, just as Mike Mussina did for the New York Yankees on his seven-year deal.
I've received widely varying reports on Ryu's potential here in MLB, ranging from reliever to future No. 3 starter. I fall more into the former camp based on video I've seen and the specifics of his scouting report; he's a bad-bodied left-hander with an out-pitch changeup, average to above-average fastball and fringy breaking ball. The Dodgers gave him a six-year, $36 million deal after paying a $25.7 million posting fee.
The pair of signings gives the Dodgers a surplus in their rotation, even assuming Chad Billingsley bows to fate and has elbow surgery and that Ted Lilly isn't healthy, either. Aaron Harang and Chris Capuano aren't league-average pitchers but could be above replacement level for someone on what is for each a de facto one-year deal. The Dodgers don't have to worry about money, apparently, so they could agree to pay those pitchers' full salaries and get a prospect or a fringy big leaguer in return.
The Dodgers have the best team on paper in the division at this point, not just due to their offseason but due to the potential to have Matt Kemp fully healthy for the first time since April. The San Francisco Giants have moved to bring back the same team that won the World Series in 2012, but haven't upgraded the roster anywhere, with very little upside from their lineup at this point and no Melky Cabrera in left.
Although it's anathema to the way GM Brian Sabean has run this club, it might make sense for the Giants to look at dealing Madison Bumgarner, who looked fatigued late in the season, for a young bat. Bumgarneas five years of team control left at $35 m
The Los Angeles Dodgers' new problem (Buster Onley)
We had the Los Angeles Dodgers on "Sunday Night Baseball" on May 20, at a time when the team was fighting to stay in first place without Matt Kemp. They were 27-13, and before the game, manager Don Mattingly had spoken with admiration about his players, about how they were competing. He acknowledged that it would be very difficult for them to continue to play that well with Kemp sidelined, but he loved what he was seeing in how the players trusted each other.
Their No. 2 hitter was Elian Herrera, Bobby Abreu was their No. 3 hitter, and their best player at that time was probably A.J. Ellis. I remember thinking during that night how the Dodgers seemed to have more energy in their dugout than any team I had seen other than the San Francisco Giants, and of course, they all went crazy when Scott Van Slyke bashed a three-run pinch-hit homer.
But the Dodgers won't field a team anything like that any time soon; there may never be a day in our lifetimes when they will be viewed as gritty, gutty underachievers. In the seven months since the new Dodgers ownership has been in place, it has spent $650 million, or about the same as Frank McCourt spent over six seasons, from 2006-11.
Six hundred fifty million. In seven months. Including the $61 million spent on Hyun-Jin Ryu.
The Dodgers have 10 players on their roster who are set to make at least $11 million.
One of their new owners told one of the Dodgers' front office executives that his goal is to have an All-Star at every position, and they are close to making that happen. Their No. 1 starter, Clayton Kershaw, is among the three or four best pitchers on the planet, and their No. 2 starter, Zack Greinke, is the highest-paid right-handed pitcher ever.
A lineup like this looks really good on paper:
LF Carl Crawford
2B Mark Ellis
1B Adrian Gonzalez
CF Kemp
RF Andre Ethier
SS Hanley Ramirez
3B Luis Cruz
C Ellis
P Kershaw
But with the riches comes a very different type of pressure, and Mattingly has the experience to know this as well as anyone, having played his entire career with the New York Yankees, and for George Steinbrenner. The Dodgers have so many All-Stars and have spent so much money that joylessness could become a major opponent.
From the very first day of spring training, they will face more scrutiny than any other team in the majors. They will be expected to win, and any series of losses will be followed with "How come you guys stink?" questions. Anything short of a deep run into the postseason will be regarded as a failure, and if they win, their owners will get the bulk of the credit.
This dynamic will test their clubhouse, and it will be interesting to see how the Dodgers' leadership develops. Kershaw is a candidate for this, even at a young age, and I'd bet that Greinke will really like playing with him. Kemp has been a leader among the position players before all the additions; some folks in the clubhouse say the chemistry among the position players was still a work in progress as the 2012 season ended.
The Giants have won two of the last three World Series yet they will be regarded as underdogs because of the Dodgers' payroll escalation. "The funny thing," said a rival evaluator, "is that I think the Giants are still the better team."
That very well could be the case. The Dodgers, as currently constructed, could have a major defensive problem at shortstop with Ramirez. They look as if they could be vulnerable against left-handed pitching, and although they have again invested heavy dollars in their bullpen, there are questions about the quality of that group.
In May, there wasn't any pressure on the Dodgers. Their owner had slowly stripped down their payroll, and they had few resources to improve the team around Kershaw, Kemp and Ethier. Now they have all the resources and all the All-Stars, and that won't be as easy as it sounds -- but nobody will feel sorry for them, ever again.
illion in total salary, with two club options beyond that.
What's next for the Dodgers? (Rumor Central)It was a huge weekend for the free-spending Los Angeles Dodgers, who appear to have acquired the No.2 and No. 3 starters in their rotation behind Clayton Kershaw.The Dodgers came to terms Sunday with Korean left-hander Hyun-Jin Ryu shortly before a Sunday deadline. Ryu's deal is for six years and sources told ESPN it's worth $36 million with an out clause that kicks in after the fifth year if he has pitched 750 or more innings, says Mark Saxon.The Dodgers also Kershaw as well as Josh Beckett, Aaron Harang and Chris Capuano serving as solid back-end of the rotation pieces. There are as many as seven veteran starting pitchers, depending on the health of Chad Billingsley and Ted Lilly.At this stage, Harang, Capuano and Lilly are obvious bargaining chips. Lilly has a $12 million deal for 2013 and has a no-trade clause, so a deal will not be easy. Harang is scheduled to make $7 million next season while Capuano has a $6 million deal for 2013. Both Harang and Capuano had ERAs under 4,00, so there is some market value.Our Keith Law has more on LA's options:- Doug MittlerKeith LawWhat's next in LA?"The pair of signings gives the Dodgers a surplus in their rotation, even assuming Chad Billingsley bows to fate and has elbow surgery and that Ted Lilly isn't healthy, either. Aaron Harang and Chris Capuano aren't league-average pitchers but could be above replacement level for someone on what is for each a de facto one-year deal. The Dodgers don't have to worry about money, apparently, so they could agree to pay those pitchers' full salaries and get a prospect or a fringy big leaguer in return."