Prospect Retro

최근 몇일 사이에 존 시켈스씨가 팬들의 요청에 따라 '유망주 회상'이란 코너에 소개된 2명의 다저스 선수들이 언급되었습니다. 간략하게 해석하겠습니다.

Prospect Retro: Hong-Chih Kuo

Per reader request, here is a Prospect Retro for Dodgers lefty Hong-Chih Kuo.

Kuo was signed by the Dodgers back in 1999 out of Taiwan, earning a lofty $1.25 million bonus. He impressed scouts with his mid-90s fastball and power breaking ball, and his command was also considered promising, if erratic. He got off to a good start with three shutout innings for San Bernadino in the California League, fanning seven. . .but he blew out his elbow in that game and had to have Tommy John surgery. I gave him a Grade C in my 2001 book, noting that he had excellent potential as a power pitcher but we needed to see how the injury recovery went.
쿼홍치는 1999년 대만출신으로 다저스와 계약했는데, 스카우터들은 90마일 중반대의 페스트볼과 파워 브레이킹볼, 그리고 좋은 커맨드를 지닌 그에게 엄청난 영감을 받았다고 합니다. 2000년 San Bernardino에 소속되어 3이닝동안 7K를 잡으면서 인상적인 데뷔무대를 가졌지만, 그의 첫 번째 TJS수술을 받고 시즌을 마감하게 되었습니다. 시켈스씨는 C등급을 주면서 얼마나 부상에서 완벽하게 돌아오느냐가 필요하다고 언급했습니다.

He came back in 2001 and made six starts for the Gulf Coast League Dodgers, posting a 2.33 ERA with a 21/4 K/BB in 19 innings, allowing 13 hits. Scouting reports indicated that his 95 MPH fastball was back, but that he seemed reluctant to use his breaking ball much, resulting in regression. This was understandable considering the injury, and I gave him a Grade C+ in the '02 book, noting that his stock could rise rapidly if he proved his arm was sound.
2001년에 돌아온 쿼홍치는 좋은 모습을 보여줬지만, 부상위험으로 인해 브레이킹 볼 사용을 줄였습니다. 그리고 시켈스씨는 C+등급을 주면서 그의 가치는 올라가고 있지만, 여전히 건강함을 증명할 필요가 있다는 단서를 달았습니다.

The recovery was not as smooth as expected. He pitched in seven games in 2002, pitching 14 innings between the GCL and Vero Beach but limited by more elbow pain. Scouting reports remained positive about his stuff and he posted a 17/3 K/BB. I gave him a Grade B- in the '03 book.

Alas, he missed all of '03 with more surgery. The elbow pain got a lot worse and he ended up needing a second Tommy John procedure, missing the entire season. He returned to the mound in 2004 but pitched just six innings before the pain returned. The surgeons went back in and cleaned out some scar tissue. At least he didn't need another transplant, but at this point it was an open question if his arm would ever be right.
이듬해 그는 GCL Dodgers와 베로비치에서 14이닝만을 던진체 다시 팔꿈치가 아팠고, 두 번째 TJS로 인해 2003년까지 쉬게 되었습니다. 04년에 돌아왔지만, 6이닝에 그쳤고, 또 수술을 받았지만, 이전에 받은 TJS와 달리 팔꿈치의 조직을 제거하는 (상대적으로) 간단한 수술이었기때문에 이듬해(05시즌) 바로 돌아올 수가 있었습니다.

Kuo looked good in the spring of 2005 but the Dodgers were cautious, moving him to relief at Vero Beach. He responded with a 2.08 ERA and a 42/10 K/BB in 26 innings. Moved up to Double-A Jacksonville, he posted a 1.91 ERA with a 44/11 K/BB in 28 innings. He got five innings of work for Los Angeles, fanning 10 but showing command problems with five walks. Still, it was a successful season: he still threw 95 MPH, and his arm didn't crumple. I gave him a Grade B- in the '06 book, projecting that he could be an overpowering reliever if he could stay healthy and refine his command a bit more.
3번의 크고작은 수술이후 다저스는 05년에 그를 릴리프로 컨버전시켰고, 그 해에 2개의 레벨에서 좋은 성적을 보여주며 시즌 막판 빅리그로 콜업되기도 했습니다. 그를 B-등급에 올려놓은 시켈스씨는 쿼홍치가 건강을 꾸준히 유지하고, 커맨드를 다시 찾는다면 압도적인 스터프의 릴리프가 될 것이라고 평가하기도 했습니다.

Kuo split '06 and '07 between Triple-A and the majors, then posted a 2.14 ERA with a 96/21 K/BB in 80 innings for the Dodgers in '08. He was limited to 30 innings by more elbow problems in '09, but remained effective when he was on the mound. The elbow has been bothersome again this spring, but he's been great when on the mound with a 1.69 ERA and a 13/3 K/BB in 11 innings with just five hits allowed.
06년과 07년에 AAA와 빅리그를 오갔으며, 08년에는 아주 좋은 모습을 보여주면서 '올해의 릴리프'상을 수상하였습니다. 작년에는 다시 팔꿈치문제가 도져 30이닝만 던졌지만, 그가 마운드에 섰을때는 도미네이트했습니다. 그리고 올해 초 팔꿈치가 또 아팠지만, 그는 마운드에 올라가기만 하면 여전히 도미네이트한 모습을 보여줬습니다.

In his major league career, Kuo has a 3.67 ERA with a 249/89 K/BB in 216 innings, 180 hits, 117 ERA+, 2.95 FIP.

There isn't any secret with Kuo. The guy is a great pitcher, but he's fragile and his workload has to be monitored carefully. There are occasional rumors that he could move back to starting, but Kuo has had three elbow surgeries and the joint still flares up on him frequently. Keep him in the pen, and be happy if you get 50-60 innings of strong relief out of him. It is a testimony to modern sports medicine, as well as his own persistence, that he's on the mound at all.
그는 분명 엄청난 스터프를 지닌 투수임에는 분명하지만, 여전히 유리몸을 지녔기에 꾸준히 관리되어야할 문제점이 남아있습니다. 그리고 토레임기 초기에 선발로 키워보려 시도했지만, 3번의 수술과 잦은 사용은 결국 그의 생명력을 고갈시키는 방법이 되었습니다. 그가 만약 한 시즌 50~60이닝만 던진다면 꾸준히 좋은 모습을 유지할 수 있을거라고 합니다. 그리고 현대의학의 승리와 함께 그의 별명(바퀴벌레)처럼 엄청난 생명력이 지금의 그를 있게한 원동력이라고 할 수 있을 겁니다.

Prospect Retro: Andre Ethier

Per reader request, let's take a look at Dodgers outfielder Andre Ethier, his background and development as a prospect, and how he currently stands.

An outfielder at Arizona State, Ethier parleyed a strong 2003 season (.377/.488/.573) into a slot in the second round of the draft, selected by Oakland. He was considered a good pure hitter with mediocre present power but the potential to develop more. His other tools were considered decent-but-not excellent. Of note was an excellent BB/K ratio in college: 52 walks, just 30 strikeouts in 260 at-bats for the Sun Devils. Oakland sent him to Vancouver in the Northwest League to begin his career, but was he was too good for the level (.390/.444/.610 in 10 games) and moved up to Kane County in the Midwest League for August, where he hit .274/.361/.316 in 23 games, showing very little power but controlling the zone well. I gave him a Grade C+ in the 2004 book.
애리조나 주립대출신의 이띠어는 2002년과 2003년에 엄청난 성적을 찍으면서 03년 드레프트에서 오클랜드 2라운드(전체 62번픽)으로 뽑혔습니다. 그는 좋은 퓨어히터이며, 지금(당시)은 중간급 파워를 보여주지만, 미래에는 파워가 더 발전할 것이라는 평가가 있었습니다. 다른 툴은 뛰어나지는 않지만, 좋은 것으로 평가되었으며, 특히 그의 BB/K비율이 좋았습니다. 드레프트된 해에 2개의 레벨에서 좋은 모습을 보여줬고, 시켈스씨는 C+등급에 그를 올려놓으면서 파워는 다소 부족했지만, 스트라익 존을 잘 컨트롤한다고 했습니다.

A back injury limited Ethier to 99 games for Modesto in the California League in 2004, where he hit .313/.383/.442. His plate discipline was good and his strikeout rate remained low, but scouts were unimpressed with his power and his OPS was +7 percent, okay but not great. Nevertheless, there was something I liked a lot about him intuitively, and while I gave him a Grade C+ in the '05 book, I also wrote "I think he has untapped potential, so watch him in Double-A."
이듬해 등쪽의 부상으로 인해 99경기만을 출전했지만, 여전히 좋은 선구안과 낮은 삼진률을 보여줬지만, 여전히 스카우터들은 그의 파워에 의문점을 제기하기도 했습니다. 그렇지만, 시컬스씨는 그를 역시 C+등급에 올리면서 (다소) 과소평가되었다고 생각했습니다.

Promoted to Midland for '05, he hit .319/.385/.497 with 30 doubles, 18 homers, 48 walks, and 93 strikeouts in 505 at-bats. The power was more impressive and it looked like he was lofting the ball more often to me, although Texas League scouts I spoke with remained not-especially-impressed with his pop. In the '06 book I noted that "scouts still say that Ethier won't hit more than 10-15 homers per season at the major league level," but that he should hit for average and get on base at a good clip. I gave him a Grade B in the book, and wrote that I expected him to put up big numbers for Las Vegas, his likely destination since he was traded to the Dodgers in December '05 for Milton Bradley.
05시즌에 AA로 승격한 이띠어는 파워는 상승했지만, 삼진이 늘어났습니다. 이에 스카우터들은 그의 파워가 늘어난것은 리그 특성(텍사스리그)때문이라고 말했습니다. 06시즌에도 여전히 스카우터들은 빅리그에서 한 시즌 10~15개 홈런이상을 기록하지 못할 것이라고 평가하기도 했지만, 시컬스씨는 그를 B등급에 올리면서 (당시) 트레이드된 라스베거스가 그에게 도움이 될 것이라고 했습니다.

He did put up the numbers, lasting just 25 games in Vegas with a .349/.447/.500 mark before being promoted to Los Angeles. He hit .308/.365/.477 in 126 games for  the Dodgers. I wrote a piece in September '06 about his potential development. I concluded:

A Mike Greenwell comp as a hitter looks legit to me. . .Greenwell hit .303/.368/.463 in his career, although I think Ethier is more effective defensively and will probably last longer. Other possible comps if Ethier maintains his current rate of production or develops more power include Fred Lynn and Dave Parker. The point is that, for all he has done this year, we still don't know exactly how Ethier is going to pan out. He could emphasize batting average at the expense of home run power....he could emerge as a yearly batting title contender. He could develop more home run power and less batting average and OBP than we currently expect. He could develop into a very good, solid player like Rick Monday. Or he could develop into an Oliva-like superstar.
라스베거스에서 짧은 25경기만을 치뤘지만, 좋은 모습을 보이면서 다저스로 콜업된 그에게 시컬스씨는 보스턴에서만 11년째 뛰면서 HOFer가 된 마이크 그린웰(Mike Greenwell)과 비교하면서 그린웰보다 더 좋은 수비력을 지녔으며 더 오랫동안 선수생활을 지속할 것이라고 예측했습니다. 물론 더 좋은 생산성을 유지한다는 조건이 있긴했죠.

As you know, Ethier hit .284/.350/.452 in 2007, but then bumped up his power with a .305/.375/.510 mark in '08 and a .272/.361/.508, 31 homer mark in '09. Interestingly, although he hit for more isolated power last year, his overall production was the same as in '08: he had an OPS+ of 132 both seasons. He was amazing this year before going down with a finger injury, combining the improved power from last season with the higher batting average marks from earlier campaigns, currently hitting .392/.457/.744 with an OPS+ of 221.
08시즌에 20개의 홈런을 쏘아올렸고, 작년에는 31개의 홈런을 기록하기도 했습니다. 08시즌과 09시즌의 ISO지수를 보면 작년이 더 높은 수치를 기록했지만, 전체적인 생산력(조정 OPS 132)은 08년과 같았습니다. 그리고 올시즌 부상당하기 전까지 트리플 크라운의 활약을 펼쳤으며, 지난 시즌보다 파워는 더 늘어났고, 타율은 더욱 좋아져, 조정 OPS가 222(by baseball-reference)를 찍고 있습니다.

Ethier's power has obviously improved even more than optimists expected. He always had a low strikeout rate and good knowledge of the zone, and as he's entered his peak seasons the result is explosive.
그를 긍정적으로 바라봤던 전문가들의 예상을 훨씬 뛰어넘는 파워를 보여주고 있는 이띠어는 항상 낮은 삼진율과 스트라익 존에 대한 좋은 이해력을 지니고 있어, 폭발하는 한해가 될 것입니다.

Looking for historical comparisons through age 27:

SIM SCORES: Richie Zisk, Bobby Higginson, Sam Chapman, Aubrey Huff, Jacque Jones, Bill Nicholson, Jim Edmonds, Jason Giambi, Larry Doby, and Reggie Sanders.

PECOTA Comps: Kevin McReynolds, Tony Oliva, Bobby Higginson, Gus Bell, Matt Holliday, Wally Moon, Reggie Smith, Al Kaline, Magglio Ordonez, and Bruce Campbell.
이런 그의 성적으로 인해 전문가들은 그의 비교대상을 위의 사람과 같이 나열해놨습니다.

Higginson shows up twice; he was a great player at his peak but fell apart after age 30. Oliva is interesting in that I identified him as a potential comp back in '06. Doby and Kaline are Hall of Famers; Oliva and Smith are better than many guys who got in. Edmonds will be a candidate. Everyone on this list was valuable, and most of them were outstanding at their peaks.
밥 히긴슨(Bobby Higginson)은 아주 좋은 활약을 펼쳤지만, 30세를 전후로 그 수치(생산력)이 팍 떨어졌는데, 짐 에드먼드(Jim Edmonds)도 그의 룰모델(?)이 될 수 있을 거라고 하는군요. 그리고 위에 언급된 인물 모두 자신들의 전성기에는 모두 뛰어난 타자들이었습니다.

Ethier is another example of a player who showed a low strikeout rate and good discipline at the lower levels, who ended up developing great-than-expected power as he reached maturity. We will have to see if his current finger injury impacts him, but I would note that some of the players on this list had injury problems that impacted their long-term historical standing.
현재 손가락 부상을 앓고 있는 그가 얼마나 남은시즌 영향을 끼치게 되는지를 지켜볼 것이라고 하는군요.

개인적으로 밥 히긴슨은 처음 빅리그를 접할때 대표적인 타이거즈의 타자로 알고 있는데, 그 선수처럼 되지 않았으면 하는 바람이 있네요. 디트로이트의 HOFer인 알 칼린(Al Kaline)이 언급된것만 하더라도 달라진 이띠어에 대한 평가가 많이 달라졌다고 생각되네요.